基于天气分型的水平面总辐射及散射辐射建模分析  

MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF HORIZONTAL PLANE GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION AND DIFFUSE SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON WEATHER TYPE CLASSIFICATION

作　　者：李芬 刘楚琦 于淏 屈爱芳 毛玲 陈小莉[3] Li Fen;Liu Chuqi;Yu Hao;Qu Aifang;Mao Ling;Chen Xiaoli(College of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Department of Mathematics,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海200090 [2]上海师范大学数理学院,上海200234 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2024年第4期560-568,共9页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52177184);西藏自治区科技计划(XZ202101ZD0015G);上海市绿色能源并网工程技术研究中心(13DZ2251900)。

摘　　要：为获得无太阳辐射观测地区的水平面总辐射及散射辐射量提出一种组合模型。首先通过日照百分率将天气情况分成3类,在此基础上,探究总云量、气溶胶等气象环境因子对水平面总辐射的影响,构建水平面总辐射线性模型;其次,考虑不同天气类型下气象环境因子的特征,建立基于高斯过程回归(GPR)的散射比和散射系数模型,进而获得散射辐射量;最后,得到每种天气类型下最优水平面总辐射模型与散射辐射模型构成的组合模型。结果表明,所提组合模型可有效提高水平面总辐射与散射辐射的预测精度。To obtain the global and diffuse solar radiation in the area without solar radiation observation,a combined model is proposed.Firstly,weather conditions are classified into three types by percentage of sunshine.On this basis,the influence of meteorological environmental factors such as total cloud cover and aerosols on global radiation is explored,and the linear model of the global solar radiation is constructed.Secondly,considering the characteristics of meteorological environmental factors under different weather types,the diffuse fraction and diffuse coefficient models based on Gaussian process regression(GPR)are established to obtain the diffuse radiation.Finally,a combined model of the optimal global and diffuse radiation models is obtained under different weather types.The results show that the model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of global and diffuse radiation.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 天气分型 机器学习 散射辐射 气象环境因子 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]