陕西省略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢群流行率估计和风险因素探索  

Population Prevalence Estimation and Risk Factors Exploration of Pullorum Disease on Black-bone Chicken Farms in Lueyang County of Shaanxi Province

作　　者：师清博 陈新忠 邓蒲媛 何勇君 熊伟曼 刘阳 李韬 李艳明 张智鹏 王新卫[4] Shi Qingbo;Chen Xinzhong;Deng Puyuan;He Yongjun;Xiong Weiman;Liu Yang;Li Tao;Li Yanming;Zhang Zhipeng;Wang Xinwei(Hanzhong Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Hanzhong 723000,Shaanxi,China;LueyangAnimal Husbandry and Veterinary Technology Extension Center,Lueyang 724300,Shaanxi,China;LaozhuangTownship Agricultural Comprehensive Service,Chenggu 723200,Shaanxi,China;College of VeterinaryMedicine,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]汉中市动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西汉中723000 [2]略阳县畜牧兽医技术推广中心,陕西略阳724300 [3]城固县老庄镇农业综合服务站,陕西城固723200 [4]河南农业大学动物医学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2024年第4期16-21,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

摘　　要：为了解陕西省略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢流行情况及风险因素,2021年5—11月对略阳县规模乌鸡场开展了鸡白痢场群流行率调查,并建立了鸡白痢预测模型进行风险因素分析。结果显示:略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢场群表观流行率为65.9%,真实流行率为64.2%(95%CI:49.5%~78.9%)。“外来人员串场”[OR=15.435,(95%CI:2.187~108.927),P<0.05]和“常年使用抗菌药物”[OR=12.078,(95%CI:1.397~104.434),P<0.05]是导致鸡白痢发生的主要风险因素;经Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)检验,P>0.05,ROC曲线下面积为0.82(95%CI:0.69~0.95),预测模型拟合优度较好,预测性能尚可。结果说明:略阳县乌鸡场鸡白痢场群流行率较高,且存在高风险因素。建议进一步严格饲养管理及生物安全防控,强化养殖人员的生物安全意识,根据本场的感染特点选择合适的抗菌药物合理开展预防或治疗。In order to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of pullorum disease(PD)on black-bone chicken farms in Lueyang County,Shaanxi Province,the population prevalence of the disease was investigated on intensive farms across the county from May to November 2021,and a prediction model of the disease was established to analyze possible risk factors.The results showed that the apparent population prevalence and the true one were 65.9%and 64.2%(95%CI:49.5%-78.9%),respectively.The main risk factors for PD occurrence included“visitors entered”(OR=15.435,(95%CI:2.187-108.927),P<0.05)and“antibiotics applied all year round”(OR=12.078,(95%CI:1.397-104.434),P<0.05);Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test showed that,P value was above 0.05,the lower area of ROC curve was 0.82(95%CI:0.69-0.95),and the R-squared of the prediction model was good with fair predictive performance.In conclusion,the population prevalence of PD in chicken farms in Lueyang County was relatively high with high-risk factors.It was thus recommended to strictly make efforts on production management and bio-safety prevention and control,improve bio-safety awareness of operators,and to prevent or treat the disease using appropriate antimicrobial drugs according to the characteristics of infection on the infected farm.

关 键 词：鸡白痢 群流行率 风险因素 陕西省 

分 类 号：S855.1[农业科学—临床兽医学]