基于命中概率的海警舰炮对海试射问题研究  

Research on sea test firing of coast guard gun based on hit probability

作　　者：孟大禹 傅学庆[1] 李进军[1] 胡江[1] MENG Dayu;FU Xueqing;LI Jinjun;HU Jiang(Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian 116018,China;North China Sea Branch of China Coast Guard,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院,辽宁大连116018 [2]中国海警局北海分局,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2024年第4期100-103,共4页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

摘　　要：为研究水面舰艇在维权执法任务中舰炮武器试射问题,提高海警舰艇舰炮武器运用能力,基于舰炮命中概率构建了仿真模型,通过仿真计算得出了不同试射决策下目标分布概率误差随射击距离的变化,并分析了射击命中概率与射击距离的关系,进一步得出了海警舰艇试射决策:即当射击距离小于等于4500 m时不应进行试射,且射击距离小于4000 m时,不试射的命中概率较高与不引入新误差的命中概率几乎一致;当射击距离大于4500 m时,可根据现场情况进行试射。研究成果可以为海警舰艇执行维权任务提供参考。In order to study the test firing of naval guns in the task of rights protection and law enforcement of surface ships and improve the application ability of naval guns of coast guard ships,a simulation model is built based on the hit probability of naval guns.Through simulation calculation,the change of target distribution probability error with the firing distance under different firing decisions is obtained,and the relationship between the hit probability and firing distance is analyzed.The test firing decision of coast guard ships is further obtained,that is,the test firing should not be carried out when the shooting distance is less than or equal to 4500 meters,and the high hit probability of no test firing when the shooting distance is less than 4000 meters is almost the same as the hit probability without introducing new errors,and the test firing can be carried out according to the field situation when the shooting distance is greater than 4000 meters.The research results can provide reference for the coast guard vessels to carry out the task of safeguarding rights.

关 键 词：舰炮 海警舰艇 试射 命中概率 

分 类 号：TJ391[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]