京津冀地区现代化进程的动态演进及发展预测  

Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Development Forecast ofModernization Process in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：朱桃杏[1] 杨雨帆 葛勇 ZHU Taoxing;YANG Yufan;GE Yong(School of management,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;Division of Teaching Affairs,Shijiazhuang Posts and Telecommunications Technical College,Shijiazhuang 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学管理学院,石家庄050043 [2]石家庄邮电职业技术学院教务处,石家庄050043

出　　处：《开发研究》2024年第2期33-41,共9页Research On Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“区域物流空间特征及铁路交通驱动效应研究”(20FJYB030)。

摘　　要：京津冀地区现代化发展历程是具有中国特色的区域发展要素全方位质量提升的过程。基于经济、社会、民生和生态环境4个维度构建京津冀地区现代化评价指标体系,应用熵权TOPSIS法、核密度估计等模型测算并分析2000—2021年京津冀地区现代化发展的动态演进特征,应用空间马尔可夫链研究京津冀地区现代化发展的空间格局,并对现代化发展程度影响进行预测。研究表明,京津冀地区现代化历经调整适应期、逐步提升期、稳步推进期3个阶段,阶段性发展特征显著。京津冀各区域现代化发展有普遍性和趋同性,同时也具有特殊性和差异性。京津冀地区现代化进程中的空间近邻效应、分层抱团效应明显,区域现代化受周边相邻区域的影响,同时和北京、天津等区域相邻的城市,其向上转移的概率会增加。双碳目标、高质量发展等战略的提出会使未来京津冀地区中国式现代化发展更加理性、平稳和均衡。政策是引领、推动和完善京津冀地区推进现代化的重要动力,重大事件的热点效应是加速京津冀地区现代化进程的催化剂。The modernization development process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a process of comprehensive quality improvement of regional development factors with Chinese characteristics.This paper constructed an evaluation index system for the modernization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from four dimensions:economy,society,people’s livelihood,and ecological environment;it calculates and analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2000-2021 by applying entropy weight TOPSIS method and kernel density estimation models,and spatial Markov chain is applied to study the spatial pattern of modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;it also forecasts the influence of modernization development degree.The research shows that modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has experienced three stages:adjustment period,gradual improvement period and steady progress period,and the phased development features are significant.Modernization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has universality and convergence,as well as particularity and difference.In the modernization process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,spatial proximity effect and stratified group effect are obvious;its regional modernization is affected by neighboring regions,and the probability of upward transformation will increase for cities adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin.The implementation of dual-carbon goal and high-quality development will make Chinese-style modernization development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region more rational,stable,and balanced in the future.Policy is an important driving force to lead,promote and improve the modernization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and hotspot effect of major events is the catalyst to accelerate the modernization process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

关 键 词：中国式现代化 京津冀 现代化综合指数 熵权TOPSIS法 空间马尔可夫链 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]