地铁交通潜在安全风险分析与管控策略——以莫斯科地铁突发事故为例  

Analysis and Control Strategies of Potential Safety Risks in Subway Transportation——Taking the Moscow Metro Emergency as example

作　　者：袁红[1] Oleg Larin 李翔[1] Yuan Hong;Oleg Larin;Li Xiang(Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756;Russian University of Transport,Moscow 127994;Plekhanov Russian University of Economics,Moscow 117997)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,成都611756 [2]俄罗斯交通大学,莫斯科127994 [3]俄罗斯普列汉诺夫经济大学,莫斯科117997

出　　处：《建设科技》2024年第7期61-63,67,共4页Construction Science and Technology

基　　金：《城市地下交通设施的绿色建造及韧性化技术研究》,编号:2022YFE0104300,中国科技部与日本国际协力机构(JICA)联合研究项目;《“双碳”战略下轨道交通影响区集约紧凑型城市设计管控机制研究》,编号:22YJCZH226。

摘　　要：地铁系统是城市生产生活进程中的精密复杂运行系统,由于其大多在地下密闭空间中运行,一旦发生重大运营安全事故,将会造成重大人身财产损失。俄乌冲突以来,莫斯科地铁站不但面临系统的运营安全风险,还存在包括地方武装恐怖袭击威胁在内的非系统性风险。本文整理了近50年莫斯科地铁运营安全事故,基于事故等级分级,总结莫斯科地铁运营安全影响因素,分析得出地铁恐怖袭击是俄乌冲突后莫斯科地铁运营重要潜在风险。引入危机生命周期MPRR理论,以2010年莫斯科地铁恐怖袭击事件为例构建MPRR模型,分析该模型并提出了俄乌冲突背景下莫斯科地铁恐怖袭击事件的全生命周期管控策略。The subway system is a precise and complex operating system in the process of urban production and life.Due to its mostly operating in underground enclosed spaces,once a major operational safety accident occurs,it will cause significant personal and property losses.Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Moscow subway stations have not only faced systematic operational security risks,but also non-systematic risks,including the threat of local armed terrorist attacks.This paper sorted out the safety accidents of Moscow subway operation in recent 50 years.Based on the classification of accidents,it summarized the influencing factors of Moscow subway operation safety,and analyzed that the subway terrorist attack was an important potential risk of Moscow subway operation since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.By introducing the crisis life cycle MPRR theory,the 2010Moscow subway terrorist attacks are taken as an example to build the MPRR model for further analysis.The full life cycle management and control strategy of the Moscow subway terrorist attacks is proposed in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

关 键 词：莫斯科地铁 危机生命周期理论 管控策略 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]