外部冲击对我国生猪价格波动的影响——以生猪疫情为例  

Impact of External Shocks on the Hog Prices Fluctuation in China--A Case of Pig Epidemics

作　　者：文春玲[1] 王艳燕 Wen Chunling;Wang Yanyan(College of Economics and Management,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学经济管理学院,大庆163319

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2024年第2期121-126,共6页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(黑龙江省农产品供需动态平衡构建的新凯恩斯DSGE研究:21JYE401);黑龙江八一农垦大学“三纵”青年创新人才项目(基于产业链视角的农产品价格波动机制及其非对称性研究:RRCQC202301)。

摘　　要：近年来,由于外部冲击事件频繁发生,使我国生猪市场价格多次发生剧烈波动,对生产者和消费者的利益产生了较大影响,引起广泛关注。采用2009年2月~2020年12月生猪产业链的月度价格数据,以我国发生的生猪疫情为例,运用VAR模型分析生猪疫情冲击与生猪价格之间的动态关系。结果表明:生猪产业链上各环节价格与生猪疫情对生猪价格波动的影响存在明显的差异;生猪疫情对生猪价格波动的影响呈现先负后正的规律;生猪疫情对生猪价格波动的贡献在滞后期为4期后显著增强。据此,从加强生猪疫情防控体系建设、完善监测预警机制、增强政府在抑制生猪价格大幅波动方面的作用等提出应对建议。Due to the frequent occurrence of external shock events in recent years,the market price of the hog in China has fluctuated drastically several times,which has a great impact on the interests of producers and consumers and has caused widespread concern.Taking pig epidemics in China as a case,the dynamic relationship between pig epidemics shocks and hog prices was analyzed by VAR model using the monthly data related to hog prices collected from February 2009 to December 2020.The results showed that there were obvious differences between the impact of segment prices in the hog industry chain and the epidemic on the hog price fluctuation.The impact of the epidemic on the hog price showed a law of first negative and then positive.The contribution of pig epidemic to hog price fluctuation increased significantly after the lag period was 4.Based on this,countermeasures were put forward from three aspects:strengthening the construction of the pig epidemic prevention and control system,improving the monitoring and early warning mechanism,and strengthening the role of the government in restraining the large fluctuations of the hog price.

关 键 词：生猪疫情 生猪价格 生猪产业链 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]