中美贸易摩擦与中国对RCEP出口贸易额:贸易偏转效应  

Sino-US Trade Friction and China's Export Trade Volume to RCEP:Trade Deflection Effect

作　　者：吴叙佳 孙林[1] WU Xujia;SUN Lin(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《科技与经济》2024年第2期101-105,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目——“RCEP协定对中国外贸生产企业高质量发展的影响机制与路径优化研究”(项目编号:22BJY011,项目负责人:孙林)成果之一。

摘　　要：采用2017年1月—2019年12月中国出口到RCEP国家的HS6分位码产品数据,匹配美国加征关税清单,运用固定效应模型,实证分析中美贸易摩擦背景下关税冲击对中国出口RCEP目的国贸易额的影响。结果表明,美国对中国产品加征关税导致了中国出口RCEP国家的贸易额上升,即发生了贸易偏转效应;美国加征关税主要通过促进中国出口RCEP国家广延边际提升,从而促进整体贸易额上升;贸易偏转效应在距离更近的目的地、东盟国家、集中度低的产品、技术复杂度高的产品、高新技术产品上起到更大作用。总体来看,中美贸易摩擦使得中国对外贸易逐步倾斜向RCEP等新兴市场,孕育着出口新“机”。The export data of China's HS6 quantile code products to RCEP countries from January 2017 to December 2019 were used to match the list of additional tariffs imposed by the US.The fixed effect model was used to empirically analyze the impact of tariff shock on the trade volumn of China's exports to RCEP destination countries in the context of the Sino-US trade friction.The following conclusions were drawn:first,the additional tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese products led to an increase in the trade volume of China's exports to RCEP countries,resulting in a trade deflection effect;second,the additional tariffs imposed by the US mainly promotes the extensive marginal increase in China's exports to RCEP countries,thereby promoting an overall increase in trade volume;third,the trade deflection effect plays a greater role in closer destinations,ASEAN countries,products with lower concentration,products with higher technological complexity,and high-tech products.Overall,the Sino-US trade friction has gradually tilted China's foreign trade towards emerging markets such as RCEP,nurturing new opportunities for exports.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 贸易偏转 出口贸易 RCEP 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]