灾难认知视角下火灾中人员非适应性疏散行为预测  

Prediction on non-adaptive evacuation behavior of personnel in fire from perspective of disaster cognition

作　　者：聂子睿 丁元春[1,2] NIE Zirui;DING Yuanchun(Ganzhou Key Laboratory of Industrial Safety and Emergency Technology,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学赣州市工业安全和应急技术重点实验室,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学应急管理与安全工程学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第4期136-142,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72164016)。

摘　　要：为预测发生火灾时紧急疏散过程中人员可能出现的疏散行为,采用问卷调查的方式收集不同人群对灾难及其信息的认知程度与疏散行为表现的数据信息,使用问卷收集的数据进行数学统计分析;对灾难及其信息认知程度与非适应性疏散行为使用Spearman方法分析其相关性,根据相关性分析与概率分析结果建立预测模型。研究结果表明:灾难及其信息认知程度与具体的非适应性疏散行为之间存在显著的相关性。在紧急疏散过程中,最有可能出现的疏散行为是超越行为,出现可能性最低的是折返行为,不同行为出现的概率不同。研究结果可为突发事件的紧急疏散提供一定的指导,在一定程度上减少人员伤亡。In order to predict the possible evacuation behavior of personnel in the emergency evacuation process of fire,the questionnaire survey was used to collect the data information of the cognition degree of disaster and its information and the evacuation behavior presentation of different crowd,and the mathematical statistical analysis was conducted on the collected data.The Spearman method was used to analyze the correlation between the cognition degree of disaster and its information and the non-adaptive evacuation behavior,and a prediction model was established according to the correlation analysis and probability analysis results.The results show that there is a significant correlation between the cognition degree of disaster and its information and the specific non-adaptive evacuation behavior.In the process of emergency evacuation,the most likely evacuation behavior is the transcendent behavior,and the least likely evacuation behavior is the return-back behavior,and different behavior have different probabilities.The research results can provide some guidance on emergency evacuation and reduce the casualties to a certain extent.

关 键 词：紧急疏散 问卷调查 疏散行为 概率预测 灾难认知 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学]