基于组合赋权-DEA的跨境铁路外部环境风险评价  

External Environmental Risk Assessment of Cross-border Railways Based on Combination Weighting DEA

作　　者：李艳丽[1] 马帅 李利军[1] 郭湛 LI Yanli;MA Shuai;LI Lijun;GUO Zhan(Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050043,China;China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学,石家庄050043 [2]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道工程学报》2024年第1期107-113,共7页Journal of Railway Engineering Society

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司项目(2021YJ205)。

摘　　要：研究目的:跨境铁路大多穿越不同国家,铁路沿线的自然、社会环境条件复杂多变,给跨境铁路外部环境安全带来巨大威胁。为保障跨境铁路平稳运行,采用组合赋权-DEA方法在全面识别跨境铁路沿线风险的基础上进行风险评价,旨在为跨境铁路风险管理工作提供借鉴。研究结论:(1)全面识别跨境铁路沿线外部环境风险,从自然环境与社会环境方面共选取30个风险指标构建跨境铁路外部环境风险评价指标体系,结合AHP-熵权法对各风险指标组合赋权;(2)应用基于DEA的风险评价方法,以各风险指标发生的概率和后果为变量,对跨境铁路外部环境风险进行评价和排序;(3)研究结果显示,跨境铁路侵限风险应予以重点关注,安保区内违法生产经营次之;(4)本文研究可为跨境铁路沿线外部环境安全管理工作提供新的思路,保障跨境铁路运输更加平稳高效运行。Research purposes:Most cross-border railways cross different countries,and the natural and social environmental conditions along the railway line are complex and variable,posing a huge threat to the external environmental security of cross-border railways.To ensure the smooth operation of cross-border railways,a combination weighting DEA method is adopted to conduct risk assessment based on comprehensive identification of risks along cross-border railways,providing reference for cross-border railway risk management work.Research conclusions:(1)Comprehensively identify external environmental risks along cross-border railways,select a total of 30 risk indicators from the perspectives of natural and social environments to construct a cross-border railway external environmental risk assessment index system,and combine the AHP entropy weight method to assign weights to each risk indicator combination;(2)Apply the risk assessment method based on DEA,using the probability and consequences of each risk indicator as variables,to evaluate and rank the external environmental risks of cross-border railways;(3)The research results show that the invasion risk of cross-border railway should be given special attention,followed by illegal production and operation within the security zone;(4)This paper can provide new ideas for the management of external environmental security along cross-border railways,ensuring a more stable and efficient operation of cross-border railway transportation.

关 键 词：AHP 熵权法 DEA 跨境铁路 铁路安全 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]