数字普惠金融背景下信用风险溢价对实际利率的影响——基于多重门槛模型的分析与行为经济学的解释  

Impact of Credit Risk Premium on Real Interest Rate in the Context of Digital Inclusive Finance:Based on the Multiple Threshold Model Analysis and the Explanations from the Perspective ofBehavioral Economics

作　　者：黄荣哲[1,2] HUANG Rong-zhe(School of Finance and Insurance,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Institute of Finance and Economics,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院金融与保险学院,广西南宁530003 [2]广西财经学院广西金融与经济研究院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《长江师范学院学报》2024年第3期45-55,共11页Journal of Yangtze Normal University

基　　金：广西一流学科建设项目“广西财经学院应用经济学”(桂教科研[2022] 1);广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“广西财经学院广西金融与经济研究院”(桂教科研[2019] 17);广西高校重点实验室建设项目“广西高校面向东盟区块链金融支付中的实验室”(桂教科研[2022]10)。

摘　　要：金融市场活动容易受到人们感觉认知的影响。在数字普惠金融快速发展的背景下,数字普惠金融发展状况成为人们在信贷市场上能够动态感知的、越来越重要的信号。根据信号的同时对比与继时对比,人们有可能改变经济决策与行为。研究结果表明:不仅数字普惠金融能够通过信用传导机制及多重门槛效应对实际利率施加显著影响,而且门槛变量表现出显著的时滞效应。在信贷市场上,人们关于数字普惠金融的体验极有可能具备感觉阈限与感觉适应的特征。数字普惠金融发展能减弱利率市场对于信用风险溢价的反应。随着数字普惠金融处于越来越快的发展阶段,人们在面对信用风险时表现得越来越乐观。Financial market activities are vulnerable to people’s sensory cognition.In light of the rapid growth of digital in⁃clusive finance,its development emerges as an increasingly significant indicator perceptible to individuals within the credit mar⁃ket.According to simultaneous contrast and successive contrast of the signals,people may change their economic decisions and behaviors.Research shows that digital inclusive finance casts significant influences on the real interest rate via credit transmis⁃sion mechanism and multiple threshold effect,and the threshold variables show a significant time-lag effect.In the credit mar⁃ket,individuals’engagement with digital inclusive finance often mirrors the principles of sensory threshold and sensory adapta⁃tion.The development of digital inclusive finance can weaken the interest rate market’s response to credit risk premiums.As digital inclusive finance develops more rapidly,people become more optimistic when facing credit risks.

关 键 词：数字普惠金融 信用风险溢价 多重门槛模型 感觉阈限 信贷市场 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]