基于灰色系统的软土地基沉降预测分析  

Analysis for Prediction of Settlement of Soft Soil Foundation Based on Grey System

作　　者：朱睿 Zhu Rui(CCCC Shanghai Waterway Engineering Design And Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]中交上海航道勘察设计研究院有限公司,上海200120

出　　处：《港口航道与近海工程》2024年第2期69-73,共5页Port,Waterway and Offshore Engineering

摘　　要：以连云港市海滨新区金海三期基础加固工程现场沉降监测数据为对象。利用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对连云港金海三期处理后的地基进行沉降量的预测、计算和对比分析。研究表明,GM(1,1)模型与泊松法、三点法和Asaoka法相比,GM(1,1)模型符合精度要求,可靠性和适用性良好,更适合工程上实际应用。通过预测数据分析进一步得出,随着预测时间的增加,GM(1,1)模型误差逐渐增加。灰色建模的方法不能适用于中长期的沉降预测,但在用于短期沉降预测时能保证精度。Based on on-site settlement monitoring data of Jinhai phase III foundation reinforcement project in the Binhai New Area of Lianyungang City,Grey Model GM(1,1)is used to predict,calculate,and compare the settlement amount of reinforced foundation in Jinhai phase III foundation reinforcement at Lianyungang City.The research shows that GM(1,1)meets the accuracy requirements,has high reliability and applies to real projects compared to Poisson method,Three-point method and Asaoka method.Furthermore,the analysis of predicted data shows that GM(1,1)gradually produces more errors with the increment of prediction time.In the case,Grey modeling method does not apply to medium or long-term settlement prediction.However,short-term settlement prediction results can reach the required accuracy.

关 键 词：灰色系统 软土地基 沉降预测 预测模型 

分 类 号：TU471.8[建筑科学—结构工程]