应用优化建模法构建红松人工林单木直径生长模型  

Construction of Individual Tree Diameter Growth Model for Pinus koraiensis Plantation Based on Optimization Modeling Methods

作　　者：吕洁[1] 童茜坪 金星姬[1] Timo Pukkala Lyu Jie;Tong Qianping;Jin Xingji;Timo Pukkala(Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,P.R.China;University of Eastern Finland)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040 [2]东芬兰大学

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2024年第5期63-69,74,共8页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(32071758);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572020BA01)。

摘　　要：为了提高不完备数据集下红松人工林直径生长模型的预测精度,以1980—2022年黑龙江省75块红松林不同复测间隔期的样地数据(林木胸径、竞争因子和立地等),利用优化建模法构建红松人工林单木直径生长模型,采用单纯形优化算法寻求模拟和实测直径分布差异最小下的模型参数,并利用自举法对模型进行检验。结果表明:优化建模法损失函数的初始参数a=1、b=0.003、c1=c2=1.5时,预测期末林分断面积偏差为0.02 m^(2)·hm^(-2),显著优于由传统归回建模法的精度(林分断面积偏差为0.44 m^(2)·hm^(-2));结合实测数据与视图分析,验证了优化建模法的优势和可靠性,揭示了优化法损失函数与传统回归法构建的直径生长模型之间的差异。因此,优化法损失函数构建的红松人工林生长模型在模拟自然生长中表现优越,为制定科学的森林经营方案提供了技术支持。In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the diameter growth model for Pinus koraiensis plantations with incomplete data sets,individual tree diameter growth models were constructed using an optimization modeling approach based on plot data with different remeasurement intervals from 75 P.koraiensis forests in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2022(including tree diameter at breast height,competition factors,and site conditions).The simplex optimization method was utilized to determine the model parameters that minimize the difference between simulated and measured diameter distributions,and the model was validated using a bootstrapping method.The results showed that with initial parameters of loss function a=1,b=0.003,c 1=c 2=1.5 in the optimization modeling approach,the predicted end-of-period stand basal area deviation was 0.02 m^(2)·hm^(-2),significantly outperforming the accuracy of the model developed by traditional regression modeling(stand basal area deviation of 0.44 m^(2)·hm^(-2)).Combining field data with visual analysis verified the advantages and reliability of the optimization modeling approach and revealed differences between the loss function of the optimization modeling approach and the diameter growth model constructed by traditional regression modeling.Therefore,the P.koraiensis plantation growth model constructed by optimizing the loss function of the modeling approach demonstrates superior performance in simulating natural growth,thus providing technical support for the development of scientifically informed forest management plans.

关 键 词：红松人工林 单木生长模型 单纯形优化方法 自举法 

分 类 号：S757.2[农业科学—森林经理学]