大宗商品价格波动影响下货币政策调控效果再检验——基于双重预期传导的分析  

Re-examining the Regulatary Effect of Monetary Policies Under the Influence of Commodity Price Fluctuation:Analysis Based on Double Expectation Transmission

作　　者：魏雨婷 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省经济研究院,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《浙江金融》2024年第2期54-70,共17页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：在大宗商品价格波动加剧的现实背景下,基于公众对大宗商品价格和货币政策操作的双重预期构建多部门BGG-DSGE模型,探讨双重预期对宏观经济波动以及货币政策调控效果的影响。研究表明:公众对大宗商品价格的有效预期有助于平滑经济波动,促进经济平稳发展;而对货币政策操作的预期则会降低货币政策调控的有效性,削弱政策调控效果,这与理性预期理论的结论基本保持一致;但在双预期共同交互作用下,公众对大宗商品价格的预期能够强化货币政策调控效果,说明改善和培育市场主体风险管理能力有助于提高政府货币政策调控能力。进一步的研究还发现,相对于数量型调控政策,价格型调控政策更为有效,当然创新性的公开市场操作政策最为有效。因此,需要重视公众对大宗商品价格波动预期和货币政策工具操作预期的联动,发挥公众对大宗商品价格合理预期的正向效能,加强对货币政策操作的预期管理,进而优化宏观经济调控效果。In the context of the reality of increased commodity price volatility,this paper constructs a multi-sectoral BGG-DSGE model based on the public's dual expectations of commodity prices and monetary policy operations to explore the impact of dual expectations on macro volatility and the effects of monetary policy regulation.Research shows that effective public expectations of commodity prices can help smooth economic fluctuations and promote steady economic development.In contrast,expectations of monetary policy operations reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation and weaken the effects of policy regulation,which remains largely consistent with the findings of rational expectations theory.Under the joint interaction of dual expectations,public expectations of commodity prices can strengthen the regulatory effect of monetary policy,suggesting that improving and nurturing the risk management capacity of market players can help improve the regulatory capacity of monetary policy.Further research also found that price-based regulation was more effective than quantity-based regulation,and of course innovative open market operations were the most effective.Therefore,attention needs to be paid to the linkage between public expectations of commodity price fluctuations and expectations of the operation of monetary policy tools.Give full play to the positive effect of the public's reasonable expectation of commodity prices,strengthen the expectation management of monetary policy operation,and then optimize the effect of macroeconomic regulation.

关 键 词：大宗商品价格预期 货币政策操作预期 货币政策调控效果 BGG-DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]