基于SWAT模型的蓝绿水短缺指数计算与风险评价  

Calculation of Blue and Green Water Scarcity Index and Risk Assessment Based on SWAT Model

作　　者：程琰 左其亭[1,2] 邱曦 CHENG Yan;ZUO Qiting;QIU Xi(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan International Joint Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Environmental Protection,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南省水循环模拟与水环境保护国际联合实验室,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第5期91-97,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200201);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279027)。

摘　　要：为了降低沁河流域水资源短缺风险,以沁河流域为研究对象,基于所构建SWAT模型的输出结果,估算2010—2016年沁河流域蓝绿水资源量,利用蓝绿水足迹和可利用蓝绿水资源量计算蓝绿水短缺指数,并划分4个蓝绿水短缺风险等级,定量评估沁河流域蓝绿水短缺状况。结果显示:1)沁河流域多年平均蓝水资源量为9.1亿m^(3),占水资源总量的12.0%;多年平均绿水资源量为66.9亿m^(3),占水资源总量的88.0%,说明沁河流域水资源大部分为绿水资源;2)年尺度下沁河大部分子流域的蓝水短缺指数大于1.0,蓝水短缺风险等级为较大风险,其中下游地区的焦作市蓝水短缺问题尤为严重;3)年尺度下沁河各子流域的绿水短缺指数呈现一定差异性,大部分子流域多年平均绿水短缺指数在0.5~1.0范围内,绿水短缺面临中度风险,总体而言,绿水短缺风险低于蓝水短缺风险。基于蓝绿水短缺指数分析,提出应对沁河流域水安全风险的措施建议。In order to reduce the risk of water shortage of Qinhe River Basin,this paper took Qinhe River Basin as the research object,estimated the blue and green water resources in Qinhe River Basin from 2010 to 2016 based on the output results of the SWAT model,calculated the blue and green water scarcity index through the blue and green water footprint and the blue and green water availability,and quantitatively evaluated the blue and green water shortage situation in Qinhe River Basin by dividing four risk levels of blue and green water shortage.The results show that:a)The average annual blue water resources in Qinhe River Basin are 910 million m^(3),accounting for 12.0%of the total water resources,and the average annual green water resources are 6.69 billion m^(3),accounting for 88.0%of the total water resources,and the main component of water resources in Qinhe River Basin is green water resources;b)Under the annual scale,the blue water shortage index of most molecular basins in Qinhe River is greater than 1.0,and the risk level of blue water shortage is relatively serious risk,especially in Jiaozuo City in the downstream area;c)Under the annual scale,the index of green water scarcity in each subbasin of Qinhe River shows some differences,the average annual green water shortage index in most sub-basins is in the range of 0.5-1.0,and the green water shortage faces moderate risk;On the whole,the risk level of green water shortage is lower than that of blue water shortage.Based on the analysis of water shortage indexes of blue water and green water,it put forward suggestions on reducing the water safety risk of Qinhe River Basin.

关 键 词：蓝绿水 SWAT模型 水短缺指数 风险评价 沁河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]