未来情景羌塘高原野牦牛栖息地分布及其影响因素  

Habitat distribution and influencing factors of wild yak of Qiangtang Plateau in future scenarios

作　　者：魏子谦 徐增让[2] 乔添 邹秀萍 靳茗茗 多布拉 WEI Ziqian;XU Zengrang;QIAO Tian;ZOU Xiuping;JIN Mingming;Dorblha(China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;SpaceWill Info.Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100081,China;Veterinary Station of the Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Dangxiong County,Lhasa 851500,China)

机构地区：[1]中国建筑科学研究院有限公司,北京100013 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [5]北京航天世景信息技术有限公司,北京100081 [6]西藏拉萨市当雄县农业农村局兽医站,拉萨851500

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第8期3317-3328,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971263);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0603);中国建筑科学研究院有限公司青年科研基金项目(20231201331030043);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFE0119200)。

摘　　要：近30年来,羌塘高原野牦牛(Bos mutus)种群数量虽缓慢恢复,但仍为野生有蹄类中仅有的易危物种。由于其对人为活动规避明显且具有极强的攻击性,野牦牛栖息地分布和质量数据仍很匮乏。把野外调查与最大熵(Maxent)、土地利用模拟模型(FLUS)、InVEST三种模型相结合,系统分析羌塘高原野牦牛栖息地分布及其影响因素,并通过未来气候、未来土地覆被和未来食物情景构建2050年不同温室气体排放浓度(RCPs)情景下羌塘高原生境状况,预测栖息地变化状况,以期为青藏高原生物多样性维护提供数据支撑。结果发现:2020年前后野牦牛栖息地总面积为25.1万km^(2),集中分布在那曲市北部,阿里地区分布零散。栖息地以草原和荒漠为主,部分位于冰川区,野牦牛对气候条件反应敏感,偏好生活在暖季降雨量约在200mm,冷季降雨量约10mm,年最低温度-30℃的区域,坡度耐受性高。约92%的野牦牛栖息地位于羌塘国家自然保护区内,仅有南部约1.2万km^(2)栖息地与人类活动交叠明显。2050年前后羌塘高原暖湿化明显,草原面积增加,野牦牛栖息地将向西北部无人区扩张,目前栖息地分布较零散的阿里地区也将出现大面积高质量栖息地,三种RCPs情境下栖息地面积分别为28.2万km^(2)(RCP2.6)、28.4万km^(2)(RCP4.5)和28.0万km^(2)(RCP8.5),新增栖息地以极重要栖息地为主,边界与羌塘自然保护区范围更加吻合,自然保护地体系建设将有力支撑野牦牛的保护。In the past 30 years,the population of wild yaks(Bos mutus)has slowly recovered and is still the only vulnerable species among the wild ungulates on the Qiangtang Plateau.Due to its obvious avoidance of human activities and strong aggressiveness,there is still a lack of data on the distribution and quality of wild yak habitats.This study used a combination of field investigation and simulations using Maxent,Geo⁃FLUS,and InVEST models to systematically analyze the distribution and influencing factors of wild yak habitats on the Qiangtang Plateau.In the future climate,land cover,and food scenarios,the habitat conditions of the Qiangtang Plateau under different CO2 concentrations in 2050 was constructed,and habitat changes were predicted to provide data support for biodiversity maintenance on the Qinghai Xizang Plateau.The results showed that the total habitat area of wild yaks around 2020 was 251000 km^(2),concentrated in the northern plateau of Nagqu City,and scattered in the Ali district.The habitats composed mainly by alpine steppe and alpine desert steppe,with some scattered in glacial areas.Wild yaks were sensitive to climate and preferred to live in areas with warm season precipitation about 200mm and cold season precipitation of 10mm,the annual minimum temperature was-30℃,and could be tolerable to high slope.About 92%of the wild yak habitats were located within the Qiangtang National Nature Reserve,with only 12000 km^(2)of the species′habitats distributed in the southern plateau that overlapping with human activities.In 2050,the average annual temperature of the Qiangtang Plateau will increase by about 2.7℃,with an increase of area in alpine steppe and water body,while a decrease of area in bare land and glaciers and snow cover.The habitats of wild yaks will spread to the northwest of the Qiangtang plateau,with habitats areas of 282000 km^(2)(RCP2.6),284000 km^(2)(RCP4.5),and 280000 km^(2)(RCP8.5)under the three RCPs scenarios,respectively.A large and continuous area of habitats will appear in the no

关 键 词：野牦牛 青藏高原 气候变化 栖息地模拟 人为干扰 羌塘自然保护区 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]