面向新时期新需求的三峡水库运行方案研究  

Three Gorges Reservoir operation scheme facing the new era and new demands

作　　者：郭生练[1] 王俊[1] 谢雨祚 钟斯睿 胡挺 李帅 GUO Shenglian;WANG Jun;XIE Yuzuo;ZHONG Sirui;HU Ting;LI Shuai(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan 430072,China;Operation and Administration Center for River Basin Hydro Complex,China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang 443133,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]中国长江三峡集团有限公司流域枢纽运行管理中心,湖北宜昌443133

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第4期379-388,共10页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340205);国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3202801);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0799254)。

摘　　要：本文回顾三峡水库设计洪水、特征水位、运行方案变化调整过程,综述三峡水库运行调度关键技术研究进展和分析来水来沙变化情况。分别采用最可能洪水地区组成法和非一致性洪水频率分析两种途径,推求考虑上游水库群调蓄影响的三峡水库运行期设计洪水及特征水位。结果表明:近10年三峡入库泥沙量比初设成果减少了84.4%,宜昌站水文情势IHA-RVA综合指标为74%、发生了重度改变,三峡水库运行期1000年一遇7~15 d洪量减少了约81.5亿~142.8亿m^(3),初设确定汛限水位的主要制约因素(防洪、泥沙)发生了很大的变化。原单站设计洪水及确定的三峡水库175-155-145 m运行方案,已无法满足新时期水资源高效利用和生态环境保护的新需求。建议把三峡水库运行方案调整为175-160-155 m,主汛期水位在155~160 m区间动态控制运行,长江中下游梅雨结束后应考虑提前蓄水,8月底蓄至163 m左右,9月底蓄至165 m,10月底蓄满。该方案在保证大坝和下游防洪安全的前提下,汛期减少弃水并增加枯水期补水量,预计可增发10%左右的发电量;抬高运行水位也有利于库区航运和减少消落带;9月份尽量不蓄水或少蓄水,可减少蓄水期对下游河道及两湖生态环境的不利影响,具有巨大的经济、社会和生态环境等综合利用效益。当预测预报长江流域可能发生流域性大洪水时,尽快将库水位消落至汛限水位145 m,确保大坝和下游防洪安全。This paper summarizes the design flood,characteristic water levels,and operation scheme variable adjustment of Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR);reviews the research advancements of key regulation technologies and analyses the inflow water and sediment of TGR in recent years.Two approaches considered the regulation of upper reservoir group,i.e.,the most likely flood regional composition method and non-stationary flood frequency analysis method are used to derive design floods and characteristic water levels during TGR operation period,respectively.The results show that the inflow sediment of TGR in recent 10 years has reduced 84.4%compared with design values,the total hydrologic alteration rate of IHA-RVA index reaches 74%with a significant change at Yichang hydrologic station,1000-year designed 7 d-15 d flood volumes of TGR have reduced 8.15-14.28 billion m^(3),and the main constrain conditions of flood protection and sedimentation in preliminary design stage used to decide Flood Limited Water Level(FLWL)have changed significantly.The preliminary design flood at-site and TGR operation scheme 175-155-145 m is unable to satisfy water resources high efficient utilization and eco-environmental protection in the new era.It is suggested that the TGR operation scheme is changed as 175-160-155 m,which is dynamic control water level between 155-160 m in the main flood season,advance refill operation after the latest ending of Meiyu on August 8,and rise water level to about 163,165 and 175 m in the end of August,September and October,respectively.The proposed scheme can reduce discard water in wet-season and increase downstream water supply in dry-season,generate 10%more hydropower,and high operation water level is benefit for navigation and able to reduce reservoir recession zone;less or no store water in September can reduce eco-environmental adverse effects on the downstream and two lakes during refill operation period,which has significant economic,social and ecologic etc.comprehensive benefits.If the possible basin-scale l

关 键 词：三峡水库 设计洪水 特征水位 运行方案 动态控制 提前蓄水 洪水资源 高效利用 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]