区域农业抗旱减灾能力影响因素及指标模型构建  

Construction of influencing factors and indicator models for regional agricultural drought resistance and disaster reduction capacity

作　　者：翟晓雁 ZHAI Xiao-yan(Beijing Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology,Beijing 101100,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市应急管理科学技术研究院,北京101100

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第4期174-178,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：为了对区域农业灾害进行防控,分析了山东省旱灾相关影响因素,通过旱灾影响因素构建旱灾预警模型,并对各因素耦合关系进行分析,最后将构建的农业旱灾综合评估模型应用于具体农业生产环境。结果表明,不同农业区域在抗旱减灾能力上存在明显差异,农业旱灾综合评估排名前3的城市为烟台市、日照市、青岛市,农业旱灾综合评估值分别为2.90、2.87、2.86。山东省经济发达区域集中在沿海地区,这些地区有充足的技术、物资、人才及财政支持,农业抗旱减灾能力强。而对于雨水贫瘠、经济较弱区域,农业抗旱减灾能力较差,集中在德州市、济宁市、东营市等地区。由此可见,要提升这些地区抗旱减灾能力,需要从财政投入、农业技术、应急管理等方面入手,确保地区农业的科学化发展。In order to prevent and control regional agricultural disasters,the influencing factors of drought were analyzed in Shandong Province.A drought warning model was constructed based on the influencing factors of drought,and the coupling relationship of vari⁃ous factors was analyzed.Finally,the constructed agricultural drought comprehensive evaluation model was applied to specific agricul⁃tural production environments.The results indicated that there were significant differences in drought resistance and disaster reduction capacity among different agricultural regions.The top three cities in the comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought were Yan⁃tai,Rizhao,and Qingdao,with comprehensive assessment values of 2.90,2.87,and 2.86,respectively.The economically developed regions of Shandong Province were concentrated in coastal areas,which had sufficient technological,material,talent,and financial support,and strong agricultural drought resistance and disaster reduction capacity.For areas with poor rainfall and weak economy,ag⁃ricultural drought resistance and disaster reduction capacity were relatively poor,concentrated in areas such as Dezhou City,Jining City,and Dongying City.It could be seen that in order to enhance the drought resistance and disaster reduction capabilities of these re⁃gions,it was necessary to start from financial investment,agricultural technology,emergency management,and other aspects to en⁃sure the scientific development of regional agriculture.

关 键 词：区域 农业抗旱减灾能力 模型构建 旱灾影响因素 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护]