2022年夏季川渝高温干旱事件对电力供需影响分析  

The impact of high temperature and drought events in the Sichuan and Chongqing region during summer 2022 on the power supply and demand

作　　者：周达 许红梅[2] 艾婉秀[2] 王秋玲 肖潺[2] 黄子立 ZHOU Da;XU Hongmei;AI Wanxiu;WANG Qiuling;XIAO Chan;HUANG Zili(China Huadian Group Corporation Limited Sichuan branch,Chengdu 610041,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国华电集团有限公司四川分公司,成都610041 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2024年第1期6-11,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：国家重点研发计划中美清洁能源联合研究中心政府间合作能源与水项目(2018YFE0196000)。

摘　　要：在气候变化背景下,极端天气气候事件的多发对电力系统的影响加剧。利用川渝地区1961—2022年的气温、降水和气象干旱指数,2022年7—9月泸定、立洲和瓦屋山水电站的日入库流量和发电量,及2022年6—9月成都市和四川省的日用电量和日高峰负荷等数据,分析2022年盛夏川渝地区高温干旱事件及其对水电和电力需求的影响。结果表明,1961—2022年川渝地区气温及高温日数显著增加,高温干旱灾害风险增大。2022年盛夏(7—8月),川渝地区气温偏高幅度、降水偏少程度、高温日数、最大干旱影响范围均为1961年以来之最。降雨量和入库流量是影响水电的重要因素,水电出力对入库流量的响应呈非线性;夏季气温与用电量具有显著的正相关,日用电量和高峰负荷对日平均气温的敏感性最高。The impact of the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events on the power system is intensified under climate change.In this study,the daily temperature,precipitation and meteorological drought index of the Sichuan and Chongqing region from 1961 to 2022,the daily inflow flow and power generation of Luding,Lizhou and Wawushan hydropower stations from July to September 2022,and the daily electricity consumption and daily peak load data of Chengdu City and Sichuan Province from June to September 2022 were used to analyses the high temperature and drought event in the summer of 2022 and its impact on hydropower generation and power demand.The results show that there was a significant increase in temperature and the number of high temperature days,and an increase in the risk of high temperature and drought in the Sichuan and Chong region from 1961 to 2022.In the peak summer of 2022(July-August),Sichuan and Chongqing experienced the highest temperature since 1961,as well as less precipitation,the largest number of high-temperature days,and the greatest extent of drought.Rainfall and inflow flow are important factors affecting hydropower generation,and the response of hydropower generation to inflow flow is nonlinear.There is a significant positive correlation between summer temperature and electricity consumption,and the daily electricity consumption and peak load exhibit the highest sensitivity to average daily temperature.

关 键 词：高温干旱 电力供需 川渝地区 气候变化 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]