气温变化对广西城乡居民电力消费的影响  

Influence of temperature variation on residents'electricity consumption in Guangxi

作　　者：黄卓[1] 凌俪嘉 李广桃 陆芊芊 HUANG Zhuo;LING Lijia;LI Guangtao;LU Qianqian(Guangxi Climate Center,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Electrical Polytechnic Institute,Nanning 530299,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气候中心,南宁530022 [2]广西电力职业技术学院,南宁530299

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2024年第1期12-16,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060、桂科AB23026052)。

摘　　要：利用2009—2023年广西91个国家级气象观测站的气温资料和广西社会用电量资料,运用Spearman相关分析法,研究近15a来广西气温和城乡居民用电量的变化趋势特征,以及运用度日数法探讨气温变化对城乡居民电力消费的影响。结果表明,广西气温整体呈上升趋势,各个季节的气温指标变化趋势不一;城乡居民电力消费增加,气象电量与气温要素的变化趋势基本一致。气温变化对广西城乡居民用电量的影响较大,以夏、秋季的影响最为明显;夏季增温导致居民电力消费需求明显增大,冬季低温过程增强也导致居民电力消费需求增加,秋季气温上升、低温过程强度减弱,居民电力消费需求有增有减;春季增暖则居民电力消费需求减少。Using temperature data from 91 meteorological observation stations and social electricity consumption data from 2009 to 2023 in Guangxi,this study examines the trends in temperature,residents’electricity consumption and the influence of temperature fluctuations on electricity consumption.The results show that the overall temperature in Guangxi has shown an upward trend,with varying trends across different seasons.The residents'electricity consumption has increased,and the pattern of meteorological electricity demand closely follows changes in temperature-related factors.The temperature variation significantly impact Guangxi residents’electricity consumption,particularly during the summer and autumn seasons.Summer warming result in a notable increase in residential electricity demand,while the intensification of winter cold processes also boosts power consumption.In autumn,as temperatures rise and the intensity of cold processes weakens,electricity demand among residents fluctuates.Conversely,spring warming leads to a decrease in residential electricity consumption.

关 键 词：气温变化 电力消费 度日数 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]