贝叶斯网络下非自然灾害桥梁事故统计分析  

Statistical Analysis of Bridge Accidents under Non-Natural Disasters Using Bayesian Networks

作　　者：龚原 李镜培[1] 聂莹慧 GONG Yuan;LI Jingpei;NIE Yinghui(Department of Geotechnical Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海200092

出　　处：《结构工程师》2024年第2期11-22,共12页Structural Engineers

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目-交通基础设施韧性评估与风险防控基础理论及方法(2021YFB2600500)。

摘　　要：提出一种利用贝叶斯网络对非自然灾害下桥梁事故分析的方法,通过统计国内运营期间桥梁发生非自然灾害事故样本并对其指标进行分析和预处理,将上述指标作为节点建立非自然灾害下桥梁事故贝叶斯网络模型并进行验证。推理计算该模型各根节点的后验概率和灵敏度,分析各根节点对桥梁整体破坏情况的影响,并计算桥梁事故原因之间的相关性。研究结果表明:桥梁服役时间对桥梁整体破坏影响最大;桥梁状况中的桥梁长度、建设年代、是否为梁桥,事故原因中的工程质量、超载超限、车船撞击对桥梁整体破坏存在明显影响;桥梁状况中是否为混凝土桥、单跨桥、跨水桥、公路桥以及事故原因中的其他原因对于桥梁整体破坏影响较小,可以忽略。桥梁事故原因之间皆为负相关关系,其中超载超限与车船撞击、超载超限与工程质量、车船撞击与工程质量之间的负相关程度较高;工程质量与其他原因、超载超限与其他原因、车船撞击与其他原因之间的负相关程度较低。This paper introduces a method for analyzing bridge accidents caused by non-natural disasters using Bayesian networks.Accident samples from domestic bridges experiencing non-natural disaster-related accidents during their operational phase were collected and subjected to statistical analysis and preprocessing of their indicators.Preprocessed statistical indicators were used as nodes to establish a Bayesian network model for bridge accidents under non-natural disasters.The model was validated,and through this model,posterior probabilities and sensitivities of various root nodes were inferred,analyzing the impact of various root node factors on the overall bridge damage.Correlations between bridge accident causes were calculated.The research results indicate that the age of the bridge's service has the most significant impact on the overall bridge damage.Factors such as the length of bridge,the construction year of the bridge,whether it is a beam bridge,and factors related to engineering quality,overloading,and collisions with vehicles and ships also influence overall bridge damage.Additionally,the effect of factors such as whether the bridge is made of concrete,is a single-span bridge,crosses water,is a highway bridge,and other causes related to accidents is relatively small and can be disregarded.There is a negative correlation between various bridge accident causes,with particularly high negative correlations between overloading and collisions with vehicles and ships,overloading and engineering quality,and collisions with vehicles and ships and engineering quality.The negative correlations between engineering quality and other causes,overloading and other causes,and collisions with vehicles and ships and other causes are relatively low.

关 键 词：桥梁工程 桥梁事故 贝叶斯网络 非自然灾害 灵敏度 

分 类 号：U447[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]