基于CA原理的土地利用变化模拟模型对比研究  

Comparative study on prediction models of land use change based on CA principle

作　　者：刘吉平[1] 王健翔 张凤[1] 王小伦 金晶 LIU Ji-ping;WANG Jian-xiang;ZHANG Feng;WANG Xiao-lun;JIN Jing(College of Geographic Science and Tourism,Jilin Normal University,Siping 136000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期116-122,共7页Journal of Jilin Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：吉林省科技发展计划项目(20230508029RC);四平市哲学社会科学规划项目(SPSK22083)。

摘　　要：元胞自动机(Cellular Automata, CA)是当前模拟未来土地利用变化的主流方法之一,为土地利用变化研究提供了重要的载体.为了进一步深化对土地利用模拟模型的认识,以中国东北松嫩平原为研究区,采用多种基于CA原理的土地利用模拟模型,对该地区2010年和2020年土地利用状况进行了模拟预测,并与实际土地利用状况进行对比分析.结果表明,PLUS模型精度指数最高,空间模拟效果最佳,而FLUS模型则在数量模拟上表现最佳,CA-Markov模型整体表现均不如前两者.PLUS模型和FLUS模型更适宜做松嫩平原的土地利用变化研究.Cellular automata(CA)is one of the mainstream methods to simulate future land use change,which provides an important carrier for land use change research.In order to further deepen the understanding of land use simulation model,Songnen Plain in Northeast China was taken as the research area,and a variety of land use simulation models based on the principle of CA were used to simulate and forecast the land use situation in 2010 and 2020 in this area,and the comparison and analysis were made with the actual land use situation.The results show that the PLUS model has the highest precision index and the best spatial simulation effect,while the FLUS model has the best quantitative simulation performance,and the CA-Markov model is worse than the previous two.PLUS model and FLUS model are more suitable for land use change research in Songnen Plain.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 土地利用 FLUS模型 PLUS模型 CA-Markov模型 松嫩平原 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]