基于地震活动图像的机器学习地震预测方法及其在华北地区的应用  

Machine learning earthquake prediction method based on seismic activity images and its application in North China

作　　者：尹晓菲 李文军[1] 许英才[2] 张晓东[1] 蔡晋安[1] Yin Xiaofei;Li Wenjun;Xu Yingcai;Zhang Xiaodong;Cai Jin’an(Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;Earthquake Agency of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 750001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]宁夏回族自治区地震局,银川750001

出　　处：《地震学报》2024年第2期257-272,共16页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3000704);上海人工智能实验室“人工智能新技术与系统研发”项目;2023年度震情跟踪定向工作任务-青年项目(2023010126);地震科技星火计划(XH210402Y)共同资助.

摘　　要：本文开展了基于地震活动图像预测华北地区地震的机器学习方法研究。根据华北地区M≥5.0中强震、强震及大震的地震平均时间间隔,采用1970年以来华北地区M≥5.0中强震、强震及大震震前大量不同时窗长的M_(L)≥3.0地震活动图像作为输入数据集,提出了基于地震活动图像预测地震的机器学习方法,并进行了震例回溯。利用本文提出的方法选取“未拓展图像数据集”和“含拓展图像数据集”对华北地区发生中强地震进行预测对比,结果显示,数据集样本量的增加有利于提高地震预测模型的精度,其中“含拓展图像数据集”预测地震的准确率可达77%;对于华北地区无震区、少震区的M≥5.0地震,可采用非1年窗长的较大时间间隔(3年、7年以上)的M_(L)≥3.0地震活动图像验证。This paper presents a study on machine learning methods for predicting earthquakes in North China based on seismic activity images.According to the average time interval between moderately strong earthquakes(magnitude 5.0 or above),strong earthquakes,and major earthquakes in North China,a large number of M_(L)≥3.0 seismic activity images at different time scales before the occurrence of such earthquakes since 1970 are used as input datasets.The machine learning method for predicting earthquakes based on seismic activity images is proposed and tested using case studies.Using the method proposed in this paper,we select“unexpanded image dataset”and“expanded image dataset”to predict moderate-strong earth-quakes in North China,it is found that increasing the sample size of the input image dataset is beneficial to improve the accuracy of the earthquake prediction models.The accuracy rate of earthquake activity image prediction in North China using the expanded image dataset can reach 77%.For M≥5.0 earthquakes happened in aseismic zones or low-seismic regions in North China,seismic activity images with larger time intervals than one year(such as three years or more than seven years)with M_(L)≥3.0 seismic activity images can be used to verify the target earthquakes in aseismic zones or low-seismic regions.This research can provide important guid-ance for earthquake prediction in North China.

关 键 词：华北地区 地震活动图像 机器学习 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]