全球火山活动时空分布特征及其对强震活动趋势的指示  

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the worldwide volcano activity and their implication to the strong earthquake trends

作　　者：石富强[1,2] 王芃 杨晨艺[1,2] 王光明 刘洁 邵志刚 王庆林[5] 贾若[6] Shi Fuqiang;Wang Peng;Yang Chenyi;Wang Guangming;Liu Jie;Shao Zhigang;Wang Qinglin;Jia Ruo(Shaanxi Earthquake Agency,Xi’an 710068,China;Shaanxi Xi’an Deep Earth Structure Observation and Research Station of China Earthquake Administration,Xi’an 710068,China;Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China;Shandong Earthquake Agency,Ji’nan 250014,China;Jilin Earthquake Agency,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,西安710068 [2]陕西西安地球深部构造中国地震局野外科学观测研究站,西安710068 [3]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [4]云南省地震局,昆明650224 [5]山东省地震局,济南250014 [6]吉林省地震局,长春130117

出　　处：《地震学报》2024年第2期273-291,共19页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：中国地震局地震预测开放基金(XH23068D);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2024JC-YBMS-210,2022JQ-254);国家自然科学基金(42304004);中国地震局地震大形势跟踪任务共同资助.

摘　　要：基于史密森学会火山目录分析了全球火山活动的时空特征,并结合中国地震台网目录讨论了火山活动对全球和中国大陆强震活动趋势的指示意义。结果显示:①全球火山活动表现出较为显著的百年周期特征,且百年周期内火山活动和M≥8.0大震之间存在着频次准同步和能量互补现象;②中国大陆1955年前后强震活动状态的变化可能与同期全球火山活动状态变化密切相关,且二者可能受控于百年周期内地球内部能量积累与释放的状态变化;③2022年汤加火山的剧烈喷发意味着地球内部能量仍在持续释放。结合全球M8地震和中国大陆M7浅源地震的活动特征,认为当前及未来一段时间全球及中国大陆的大震活动状态可能与二十世纪上半叶相似。Identical with earthquakes,volcanic eruptions also play a role of energy release from the Earth’s interior.And the volcanic eruption intensity can be measured by volcanic explosivity index(VEI for short),which is determined by the volume of the eruption material and the height of the volcanic ash column.On January 15,2022,a volcano erupted violently in Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean with the eruption intensity as high as VEI=5.And the energy release possibly exceed 58 Mt TNT,almost six times as much as the energy released by the great Wenchuan earthquake in 2008.The extremely energy release has attracted widespread attention from international scientists and has a significant impact on the global atmospheric environment and climate change.However,as a way of energy releasing of the Earth’s interior,whether the violent eruption of the Tonga volcano was related to the state change of strong earthquake trend worldwide or in a specific tectonic region?In other words,can the extreme eruption of the Tonga volcano provide some clues or indications for the analyses of strong earthquake trend worldwide or in a specific tectonic region?To answer this question,here,we firstly summarized the spatio-temporal features of global volcanic eruptions based on the the volcano catalogue from Smithsonian Institution and reviewed the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in the whole world and Chinese mainland on the basis of earthquake catalogue from China Earthquake Network.And then,we analyzed the possible indications of volcanic activity to the trends of global and Chinese mainland strong earthquakes in the viewpoint of the seismicity analysis.What is more,the possible change in strong earthquake trends of the whole world and Chinese mainland after the Tonga volcanic eruption is also discussed.The results are as following.Firstly,global volcanic and seismic activities have similar characteristics on the plate scale,and they share the same main active tectonic area,called the Pacific Ring of Fire.However,there may b

关 键 词：火山 地震 时空分布特征 地震趋势 全球和中国大陆 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学] P317.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]