基于MaxEnt模型的腐烂茎线虫在内蒙古地区适生区预测  

Potential prediction of Ditylenchus destructor in Inner Mongolia based on MaxEnt

作　　者：杨帆[1] 赵远征 张晓明 王东 周洪友[1] YANG Fan;ZHAO Yuanzheng;ZHANG Xiaoming;WANG Dong;ZHOU Hongyou(College of Horticulture and Plant Protection,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010018,China;Institute of Plant Protection,Inner Mongolia Academy of Agricultural&Animal Sciences,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010031,China;College of Grassland,Resources and Environment,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010018,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学园艺与植物保护学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院植物保护研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010031 [3]内蒙古农业大学草原与资源环境学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《生物安全学报（中英文）》2024年第2期161-168,共8页Journal of biosafety

基　　金：内蒙古自治区重点研发项目(2022YFHH0036);中央引导地方科技发展资金(2021ZY0005);内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2021ZD0005)。

摘　　要：【目的】为保障马铃薯产业健康发展,加强腐烂茎线虫的检疫防控工作,对其在内蒙古地区的适生区进行预测分析。【方法】根据腐烂茎线虫在我国最新的分布和环境数据,通过MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS软件,预测当前和未来气候条件下腐烂茎线虫在内蒙古地区的适生区。【结果】MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.929,预测结果准确可靠。预测结果显示:当前气候条件下腐烂茎线虫在内蒙古地区的适生区面积为41.8万km^(2),占全区面积的35.31%。研究表明,在2021—2040年和2041—2060年,腐烂茎线虫在内蒙古地区的总适生区面积将不断扩大;其中在SSP1_2.6气候情景下,在赤峰市、通辽市和兴安盟将出现腐烂茎线虫的高适生区;在SSP3_7.0气候情景下,在鄂尔多斯市、赤峰市、通辽市将出现腐烂茎线虫高适生区。利用Jackknife刀切法计算得到影响腐烂茎线虫分布的主导环境因子为温度季节性变化方差、最湿月降雨量、最冷季平均温、昼夜温差月均温、最湿季平均温。【结论】腐烂茎线虫在内蒙古地区有进一步扩散的风险,建议在未来气候情景下出现腐烂茎线虫高度适生区的盟市,应加强调运检疫和疫情监测,防止腐烂茎线虫进一步扩散。【Aim】To ensure the stable and healthy development of the potato industry,strengthen the quarantine and control of Ditylenchus destructor,a prediction and analysis of fitness zone in Inner Mongolia was conducted.【Method】Based on the latest distribution and environmental data of D.destructor in China,the suitability zones of D.destructor in Inner Mongolia under current and future climatic conditions were predicted by MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS software.【Result】The mean AUC of the MaxEnt model was 0.929,with accurate and reliable prediction results.The prediction results showed that under the current climatic conditions,the D.destructor had a suitable area of 4.18×10^(5)km^(2)in Inner Mongolia,accounting for 35.31%of the total area.It showed that the total area of the fitness zone of D.destructor in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region would be expanding in 2021—2040 and 2041—2060;among them,under the SSP1_2.6 climate scenario,high fitness zones of D.destructor may appear in Chifeng,Tongliao and Hinggan League;under the SSP3_7.0 climate scenario,high fitness zones of D.destructor may appear in Erdos,Chifeng and Tongliao.Further,the Jackknife method identified temperature seasonality,precipitation of the wettest month,mean temperature of the coldest quarter,mean diurnal range,and mean temperature of the wettest quarter as the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of D.destructor.【Conclusion】The D.destructor has the risk of further spread in the Inner Mongolia region.It is recommended that in future climate scenarios should strengthen the transfer of quarantine and epidemic monitoring to prevent further expansion of D.destructor in cities with highly suitable areas for D.destructor.

关 键 词：腐烂茎线虫 MAXENT 潜在适生区 气候模式 

分 类 号：S435.32[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]