地位知觉弹性下的俄欧能源安全互动博弈  

The Russian-European Energy Security Interactive Struggle in the Perspective of the Elasticity of Status Perception

作　　者：李骏 陈建宇[3] Li Jun;Chen Jianyu

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院 [2]中山大学区域国别研究院 [3]法国巴黎政治学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第2期62-89,162,163,共30页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“碳中和与地缘政治博弈双重嵌套下的自然资源治理建模与应用研究”(42271269)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：对国家地位的追寻一定程度上反映了一个国家对自身安全问题的认知变化,而博弈对手对地位变化的敏感程度取决于双方获取地位的力量对比、社会语境和历史叙事的影响。冷战以来欧盟与俄罗斯的能源安全博弈分为三个不同的博弈组合阶段:第一阶段是1994~2004年欧盟创新式策略对俄罗斯仿效式策略阶段,双方在前期消除分歧,在正和博弈逻辑下展开合作,达成能源合作协议,俄罗斯在后期由于地位未如愿得到认可而改变策略;第二阶段是2004~2010年欧盟创新式策略对俄罗斯竞争式策略阶段,俄罗斯通过竞争式策略实现地位伸张进一步强化能源供应链核心地位并化解欧盟扩张规范性权力的招式,欧洲国家在相对知觉钝性被放大的作用下未能及时应对俄的策略,合作在欧盟妥协的条件下形成;第三阶段是2010~2019年的欧盟竞争式策略对俄罗斯竞争式策略阶段,欧盟在获取地位的物质力量方面在单元层面不再具有非对称优势,竞争式地位伸张失败所塑造的败者身份使博弈场域内俄欧地位同时下降,俄欧在负和博弈合作中及时止损。研究结果表明国际社会中各主要行为体对自身国际地位的谋求是影响能源博弈互动策略的一个基本动力,俄欧双方在连续的安全博弈互动情境以及不同外生条件下会呈现出交替性合作或冲突的行为模式。Status seeking reflects to a certain extent the changes in the perceptions of countries'security issues,and the sensitivity of the game opponents to the status changes depends on the influence of the power contrast between the two sides in acquiring the status,the social context,and the historical narratives.The energy security struggle between the EU and Russia since the Cold War can be divided into three different stages:the first stage is the stage of the EU's innovative strategy versus Russia's imitative strategy from 1994 to 2004,in which the two sides eliminated their differences in the early stage and cooperated to reach an energy cooperation agreement under the logic of the positive-sum game,and the Russian side changed its strategy in the later stage because its status was not recognized as it wished;the second stage is the stage of the EU's innovative strategy versus Russia's imitative strategy from 2004 to 2010,in which the two sides changed their strategies.The second stage is the stage of the EU's innovative strategy versus Russia's competitive strategy from 2004 to 2010,in which Russia's competitive strategy is used to further strengthen its position in the core of the energy supply chain and to defuse the EU's expansion of its normative power,and European countries fail to respond to Russia's strategy in a timely manner under the amplified effect of relative perceptual obtuseness,and the cooperation was formed under the conditions of the EU's compromises;and the third stage is the stage of the EU's competitive strategy versus Russia's competitive strategy from 2010 to 2019.The third stage is the stage of the EU's competitive strategy versus Russia's competitive strategy from 2010 to 2019,when the EU no longer has an asymmetric advantage at the unit level in terms of the material power to acquire a position,and the failure of the competitive position assertion creates a loser's identity that leads to a simultaneous decrease in the position of the Russians and the Europeans in the field of the game,a

关 键 词：能源安全博弈 地位信号 知觉弹性 身份政治 俄罗斯 欧盟 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]