俄乌冲突与俄罗斯的大战略  

The Special Military Operation and Russia's Grand Strategy

作　　者：梁强[1] Liang Qiang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第2期110-130,164,165,共23页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“俄罗斯重建二战史话语体系研究”(22BSS019);国家社科基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项2022年重大招标项目“大国兴衰的历史逻辑、规律与国际秩序演进研究”(22VLS015)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发起的特别军事行动引发激烈争议。从大战略角度看,这次行动是国际格局加速变革下大国权势争夺的必然结果。基于统领性、持久性、全面性三个基本特征的判定,可以确认普京时代的俄罗斯确有一项大战略。这一战略侧重行为而非计划或原则,是典型的行动战略。大战略的形成并非一蹴而就,而是由俄罗斯根本的战略关切、经久的战略文化和基本的战略取向共同塑造而成,是一项贯穿古今的“俄罗斯共识”。俄罗斯大战略的根本目标是推动世界多极化,与其他强国划分势力范围并维持大国协调,同时保持独特的政治文明,最终使俄罗斯回归世界一流强国地位;其实现方式是通过主动的进攻性战略削弱美国霸权,最重要的手段是运用军事力量。抗击北约东扩是俄罗斯大战略当下任务的集中体现,其武力使用更多体现出一种“不对称战略”。对乌特别军事行动从“混合战”变为常规战后,“不对称战略”迫近极限。基于“目标与手段的平衡”这一实施大战略的基本原则,对俄罗斯来说,政治而非军事上的胜利是俄乌军事冲突最具现实合理性的结局,也是抗击北约东扩大战略意义上的最优解。面对美国霸权,俄罗斯使用武力打破了西方特别是美国在冷战后塑造的国际政治叙事,其实施过程及成败对学术界重新讨论国际政治中的武力使用有一定启示。Russia's special military operation against Ukraine in 2022 has triggered a heated controversy.From the perspective of grand strategy,this operation is the inevitable result of the struggle for power among the major Powers against the backdrop of accelerated changes in the international landscape.On the basis of the three basic characteristics of unity,permanence and comprehensiveness,it is possible to confirm that Russia in the Putin era has a grand strategy.This strategy is a typical action strategy that focuses on behavior rather than plans or principles.The formation of the grand strategy did not happen overnight,but was shaped by Russia's fundamental strategic concerns,enduring strategic culture,and basic strategic orientation,and is a"Russian consensus"that runs through the ages.The fundamental goal of Russia's grand strategy is to promote multipolarity in the world,to divide spheres of influence with other powers and to maintain great power coordination,while preserving its unique political civilization,and ultimately to return Russia to the status of a first-class power in the world;this strategy is to be realized by weakening the hegemony of the U.S.through a proactive and offensive strategy,the most important means of which is the use of military force.The fight against NATO's eastward expansion is the focus of the current tasks of Russia's grand strategy,and its use of force reflects more of an'asymmetric strategy".The"asymmetric strategy"is approaching its limits afer the special military operation against Ukraine was transformed from a"hybrid war"into a conventional war.Based on the basic principle of the implementation of the grand strategy-"balance of goals and means"-a political rather than a military victory for Russia is the most realistic and rational outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and the optimal solution in the sense of the strategy of counteracting NATO's expansion to the East.In the face of U.S.hegemony,Russia's use of force has shattered the international political narr

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 俄罗斯大战略 北约东扩 进攻性战略 不对称战略 

分 类 号：D736.4[政治法律—政治学]