俄乌冲突背景下北约亚太化的联盟理论分析:战略非理性抑或其他  

Strategic Irrationality or Else:An Alliance Theory Analysis of NATO's Asia-Pacificisation in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：肖河[1,2] Xiao He

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第2期131-159,165,166,共31页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“推进国家安全体系和能力现代化研究”(2023YZD025)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着俄乌冲突的持续,这场危机与北约亚太化之间的“伴生”关系也愈发明显,亦即随着冲突的升级和持续,北约亚太化的深度和速度都有所增强。这一“伴生”现象提出了一个突出的理论问题,那就是为什么北约会在一场大规模对俄冲突刚刚拉开帷幕的时候,就冒着与中国关系交恶的风险在亚太地区扩张联盟。考虑到北约成员中的不少决策者都认识到了这种“战略分散”的风险,它们国内的国际关系理论家中也不乏“区别对待”的提倡者,该现象显得格外“反常”。大多数现有研究虽然也不同程度地观察到了该现象,然而在分析中却往往将此现象视为战略上的非理性行为,且很少利用联盟理论,深入剖析危机爆发对相关各方得失计算的影响。本文立足于对联盟成本概念的更充分理解,全面讨论了美国及其盟国于乌克兰危机前后在北约亚太化问题上的变化,指出危机的爆发减少了美盟国在对华对俄政策配合方面美国可能蒙受的边际损失,也降低了它们对华对俄“区别对待”的可能收益。上述重要变化增强了参与和推动北约亚太化的政策吸引力,使得北约在危机后明显加快了亚太化进程。危机帮助美国部分克服了自身联盟政策上的内在张力,实现了既要求欧洲盟国提供更多安全资源,又试图限制它们战略自主性的目的。更重要的是,危机强化联盟的“意外”结果可能促使美国调整联盟政策,有意识地对中俄采取“合而治之”策略,这尤其需要我们警惕。As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues,the"concomitance"between this crisis and NATO's Asia-Pacificization has become more and more obvious,i.e.,with the escalation and continuation of the conflict,the depth and speed of NATO's Asia-Pacificization have increased.This"concomitance"raises a salient theoretical question:why would NATO risk a deterioration in relations with China by expanding its alliance commitments in the Asia-Pacific region at the very beginning of a large-scale conflict with Russia?This phenomenon is particularly"counterintuitive"given that the risks of such""strategic fragmentation"are recognized by many policymakers in NATO's membership,and that there is no shortage of"differentiation"advocates among international relations theorists in their countries.Most existing studies have observed this phenomenon to varying degrees,but the analysis tends to treat it as strategically irrational behavior and seldom uses alliance theory to analyze the impact of the crisis on the calculus of gains and losses of the parties involved.Based on a fuller understanding of the concept of alliance costs,this paper comprehensively discusses the changes in the gains and losses of the United States and its allies over NATO's Asia-Pacificization before and after the Ukrainian crisis,and argues that the outbreak of the crisis has reduced the marginal losses that U.S.allies might have incurred to the U.S.in terms of policy cooperation with China and Russia,and also reduced the potential gains from their"differentiated treatment"of China and Russia.It also reduces the potential gains from their"differentiated treatment"of China and Russia.These important developments have increased the policy attractiveness of engaging in and promoting NATO's Asia-Pacificization,which has accelerated significantly in the in the wake of the crisis.The crisis has helped the U.S.to partially overcome the inherent tensions in its own alliance policy,realizing its goal of demanding more security resources from its European allies while trying

关 键 词：北约亚太化 联盟政治 美国联盟体系 俄乌冲突 中美关系 美俄关系 

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