2024年美国大选与乌克兰危机的走向  

The US Election in 2024 and the Trend of the Ukraine Crisis

作　　者：张文宗[1] 师冠男 Zhang Wenzong;Shi Guannan(Institute for American Studies,CICIR)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2024年第2期1-22,186,共23页Peace and Development

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金重点项目“美国政治生态变化和两党对华政策比较研究”(项目编号:22AGJ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：延宕两年多的乌克兰危机以及是否应该继续军援乌克兰,是美国两党在2024年总统大选中辩论和斗争的重要议题之一。拜登政府与两党建制派支持继续援乌,而以总统候选人特朗普为代表的共和党民粹派则加以反对,国会众议长迈克·约翰逊最初反对继续援乌,但在国内外压力下转而支持了拜登政府,使得美国援乌政策得以延续。乌克兰危机的长期化、美国两党围绕大选的政治斗争、美国民意在援乌问题上的分裂等因素相互叠加,导致相关的政策分歧和辩论。由于美国在欧洲安全架构和大国政治中扮演着至关重要的角色,其大选结果将对乌克兰危机和世界地缘政治走向产生直接影响。但不管何人胜选,美国、北约和俄罗斯之间爆发全面军事冲突的可能性不大,俄乌就领土划分问题达成协议的可能性也不大。未来,俄罗斯与西方之间经济联系中断、对抗敌意难消、低烈度的代理人战争时断时续的新冷战状态可能将持续下去。The crisis in Ukraine,which has dragged on for more than two years,and whether military aid to Ukraine should continue are the most important issues debated and fought over by the two parties prior to the US election in 2024.The Biden administration and the pro-establishment camp of both parties support continued aid to Ukraine,aimed at driving all Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory.Republican populists,represented by Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump,oppose continued aid to Ukraine,arguing that Ukraine should be pressured to negotiate a ceasefi re with Russia,and that funding aid to Ukraine should be linked to issues such as strengthening US border security.The prolonged crisis in Ukraine,the political struggle between the two parties in the US over the coming election,the increasingly obvious“aid fatigue”among the American public and other factors,which are reinforcing each other,have led the escalation of relevant policy diff erences and debates.Deep divisions in the United States over aid to Ukraine could have a signifi cant impact on the outcome of the election.In the absence of an all-out confl ict between NATO and Russia that leads to a major war,the internal diff erences of the US will limit its aid policy to Ukraine,so it will be diffi cult for US policy towards Ukraine and Russia to fundamentally change the direction of the Ukraine crisis after the election.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 美国大选 军事援助 拜登政府 特朗普 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]