中国货币政策规则与央行政策取向  

China’s Monetary Policy Rules and the Central Bank’s Policy Orientation

作　　者：薛立国[1] 林辉[1] 张润驰 马永远 XUE Liguo;LIN Hui;ZHANG Runchi;MA Yongyuan(Nanjing University,210093;Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,210023;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,211106)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,210093 [2]南京邮电大学经济学院,210023 [3]南京航空航天大学,211106

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第4期55-71,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目“后危机时代中国的‘大稳健’:形成机理和经验研究”(2022M721568);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目“美联储加息对中国经济的影响与对策研究”(2023SJYB0004);江苏省卓越博士后计划(2023ZB835)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国央行通过多种方式加强与公众沟通,旨在提升政策传导效率,进而提高政策有效性。那么,如何从学理层面理解把握央行政策取向?本文通过构建时变参数结构向量自回归模型(TVP-SVAR)并基于符号约束识别策略,从政策反应系数、政策波动率、政策松紧度、政策目标等方面揭示不同政策规则(价格型和数量型)的政策参数所蕴含的央行政策取向,结果表明:我国央行在宏观调控时短期偏向数量型规则,长期倚重价格型规则,且对“促增长”的偏好优于“稳通胀”;数量型规则的波动率大于价格型规则,且二者的波动率具有明显的时变特征,总体呈现先升后降的“倒U型”结构;货币政策在2008年国际金融危机时期较为宽松,经济新常态提出以后趋于稳健,新冠疫情时期适度宽松;经济新常态提出以前,数量型规则的通胀目标和产出缺口目标与实际目标值较为一致,经济新常态提出以来,价格型规则的通胀目标和产出缺口目标与实际目标值耦合较好。脉冲响应分析进一步验证了上述结论。本文的结论有助于不同经济主体通过考察政策参数的动态演化趋势透析央行政策取向,进而提升货币政策有效性。China’s economy has transitioned from a period of rapid growth to one focused on high-quality development,necessitating monetary policy regulation to align with and support this transition.The People’s Bank of China has enhanced communication with the public through various channels,including participating in the State Council’s policy briefings,publishing policy responses on its website,and granting interviews to both domestic and international media outlets.The objective is to enhance the efficacy of policy transmission by employing a variety of communication strategies,ultimately bolstering the impact of monetary policy.As a result,a pertinent question arises:how can one theoretically discern and comprehend the policy orientation of the central bank?The answer may be found in the precise identification of the central bank’s monetary policy framework.The current body of literature shows limited focus on the central bank’s potential policy orientation embedded within policy rules.Furthermore,the few articles that address this topic have primarily examined the central bank’s policy orientation through policy response coefficients,rather than integrating factors such as policy volatility,policy tightness,and policy objectives,to fully explore the central bank’s policy orientation embedded within policy rules.The primary emphasis of the aforementioned literature is on assessing the suitability of the Taylor Rule in the context of China,without taking into consideration the practical context of China’s transitional period in implementing both price-based and quantity-based policy rules.Therefore,it becomes challenging to objectively analyze the central bank’s management of policy instruments across various stages and scenarios.This study utilizes a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive model(TVP-SVAR)and employs a sign restriction identification scheme to uncover the central bank’s policy orientation embedded within policy parameters of various policy rules(including price-based

关 键 词：货币政策规则 央行政策取向 符号约束 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]