双循环背景下外部经济政策不确定性负向冲击的化解研究:基于企业投资行为视角  

Research on Resolving the Negative Impact of External Economic Policy Uncertainty against the Background of Double Development Dynamic:From the Perspective of Corporate Investment Behavior

作　　者：郝大鹏 刘元春 方意 HAO Dapeng;LIU Yuanchun;FANG Yi(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,100836;Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,200433;Renmin University of China,100872)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836 [2]上海财经大学,200433 [3]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,100872

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第4期141-156,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合的重大举措研究”(23AZD016);国家自然科学基金项目“金融文本大数据与银行业系统性风险:指标构建、应用与评估整合”(72173144)。

摘　　要：本文以“双循环”为背景,以企业投资行为为视角,探究外部经济政策不确定性对我国带来的负向冲击,并重点分析冲击的传导渠道和化解措施。在冲击影响方面,外部经济政策不确定性的上升会对我国企业投资产生抑制作用。在冲击渠道方面,根据冲击由外向内传导的环节可以分为两个层次,即外部需求渠道的直接效应和供应链传导效应。具体而言,企业的海外营收占比越高,外部经济政策不确定性通过外部需求渠道的直接效应对企业投资的负面影响越强,并且该负面影响能通过供应链向上游传导,即企业客户的海外营收占比越高,外部经济政策不确定性通过外部需求渠道的供应链传导效应对企业投资的抑制作用越强。另外,在“敲竹杠”机制作用下,企业客户集中度的下降能够缓解外部经济政策不确定性通过供应链传导效应对企业投资造成的负面影响。最后,在冲击化解层面,外贸企业可通过积极参与国内大循环来化解外部经济政策不确定性的负面影响,并可通过缓解企业融资约束程度和提高企业经营效率来引导企业积极参与国内大循环。China has become the world’s second largest economy and the largest exporter of goods trade,so it is increasingly affected by foreign economic risk events and economic policies.In recent years,the external economic policy uncertainty(EPU)faced by China has continued to rise.The increase in the EPU inevitably has a negative impact on China’s macro economy and foreign trade enterprises.Existing literature has found that the EPU has a strong transnational spillover effect,and that external EPU has an inhibitory effect on China’s export and leads to a significant outflow of cross-border funds from China’s stock market,but has not considered the impact of external EPU on China’s investment.In addition,existing literature mainly studies how the EPU inhibits corporate investment via the channel of real options and financial friction.With the continuous strengthening of globalization and the deepening of the division of labor and cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chains,the supplier-customer relationship has an important impact on the performance and investment behavior of enterprises.However,there is no literature that analyzes the impact of EPU on corporate investment behavior from the perspective of the supply chain.Therefore,this paper uses the 2003-2019 data of A-share listed companies in China to expand the research on the spillover effects of external EPU on China and on the channels through which EPU affects corporate investment behavior.Compared with the existing literature,this paper has the following main contributions.First,this paper proposes a two-layer channel via which the external EPU affects Chinese corporate investment:the direct impact via the external demand channel and the indirect effect via the supply chain channel.Specifically,this paper finds that foreign trade demand is an important way for external EPU to affect domestic corporate investment.The empirical results show that the external EPU can have a significant negative direct impact on Chinese co

关 键 词：双循环 外部经济政策不确定性 企业投资 外贸需求 供应链传导效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F752