双重冲击:后疫情时代中东欧11国通货膨胀困境  

Dual Impact:The Inflation Predicament of the Eleven CEE Countries in the Post-Pandemic Era

作　　者：佟韫成 Tong Yuncheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

出　　处：《欧亚经济》2024年第2期84-106,130,132,共25页Journal of Eurasian Economy

摘　　要：后疫情时代,中东欧11国的通货膨胀形势引人关注。新冠疫情和乌克兰危机升级构成了对宏观经济的双重冲击。为应对冲击,中东欧11国采取了扩张性的财政举措和宽松的货币政策。这些因素在通货膨胀的形成中发挥了重要作用。该文认为,中东欧11国的通货膨胀发生机制具有特殊性,兼具供给冲击型和需求冲击型的特征,并且通货膨胀在演进过程中还受到域外经济体的政策外溢影响。这些特征使得常规的抗通货膨胀手段面临复杂的现实考验。尽管中东欧各国采取了一定的措施,但通货膨胀的影响远未消除,并且对一些国家的经济增长产生了负面影响。Inflation in the eleven Central and East European countries has attracted public attention in the post-pandemic era.The COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of the Ukraine crisis brought dual impacts on the macroeconomy of these countries.In response to the impacts,CEE countries adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that intensified inflation.This paper holds that the mechanism for the occurrence of inflation is fairly special with both supply shock and demand shock features.In addition,policy externality of the economies is another crucial factor behind the evolvement of the inflation.These features exposed regular anti-inflation measures to complicated realities.The aftermath of the inflation in CEE countries is far from being eliminated and brought negative impact on the economic growth of some of CEE countries.

关 键 词：中东欧国家 动态AD-AS模型 通货膨胀 经济增长 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]