软制衡视角下的委内瑞拉对美反制策略  

Venezuela's CountermeasureSStrategy against the United States in the Perspective of Soft Balancing

作　　者：孙玲 Sun Ling

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2024年第2期130-148,153,154,共21页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：冷战后美国“单极时刻”到来,制衡缺位随之出现,引发了国际关系学界对均势理论的反思。软制衡概念在“威胁均衡论”基础上应运而生,为战后制衡缺位提供了一种合理解释。软制衡是在实力非对称条件下弱国采取的系统性战略选择,为理解强弱互动中强国无法“为所欲为”的窘境以及弱国的反制提供了新的视角。本文试图以此为切入点,分析委内瑞拉对美反制策略。就手段而言,委内瑞拉主要通过同古巴、伊朗和俄罗斯等反美国家建立外交联盟、实施系统性合作拒止以及建立排除美国的地区发展倡议等策略对美国进行反制。从动机来看,委内瑞拉对美国施加软制衡是威胁认知改变的结果,美国单边行动引发的“合法性危机”、国际规范的改变、石油美元的资金支持、美国全球战略重心的转移以及21世纪初拉美左翼运动的蓬勃发展等因素为委内瑞拉实施反制提供了有利条件。以效果论,委内瑞拉反制策略在维护本国独立与利益、提振拉美左翼团结等方面取得了一定成效,但政策在执行过程中存在“双重依赖”问题,表现出明显的局限性。The“unipolar moment”of the United States coincided with the absence of rebalancing after the Cold War,and this puzzle triggered a reflection on the“balance of power”theory.The concept of“soft balancing”emerged on the basis of the“balance of threat”theory and provided a reasonable explanation for the absence of balancing against the US after the Cold War.Soft balancing is a systematic set of strategic choices that weak states make in asymmetric interactions with strong powers,including rhetoric,institutional ties,economic statecraft,and diplomatic agreements.It offers a new perspective for understanding the dilemma of strong powers not being able to“do whatever they want”with weaker states and the countermeasures by the weak against the strong.This article attempts to provide a thorough analysis of Venezuela's countermeasures against the US from this perspective.In terms of tactics,Venezuela's soft balancing against the United States consists of measures such as building diplomatic alliances with anti-American countries such as Cuba,Iran and Russia,implementing systematic denials of cooperation,and constructing regional development initiatives that exclude the United States.In terms of motivation,Venezuela's countermeasures against the United States are the direct result of changes in its threat perception.Factors such as the legitimacy crisis caused by US'unilateralism,changes in international norms,the financial support of the oil dllar,shifts in the US global strategic iocus,and the strong momentum of left movements in Latin America at the beginning of the 21st century,created favourable conditions for Venezuela to counterbalance US'power and influence.Judging by the results,Venezuela's countermeasures have achieved certain results from the perspective of safeguarding its independence and national interests as well as strengthening the unity of the left in Latin America.However,due to the“dual dependence”in the implementation of its policies,the limitations are obvious and inevitable.

关 键 词：软制衡 非对称关系 美委关系 查韦斯 

分 类 号：D877.4[政治法律—政治学]