基于主成分分析法的城轨运营安全评价指标体系研究  

Urban Rail Operation Safety Evaluation Index System Based on Principal Component Analysis Method

作　　者：惠昌武 许得杰[1,2] 巩亮 曾钰宁[1,2] 钟苗苗 HUI Changwu;XU Dejie;GONG Liang;ZENG Yuning;ZHONG Miaomiao(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070;Key Laboratory of Railway Industry on Plateau Railway Transportation Intelligent Management and Control,Lanzhou 730070)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070 [2]高原铁路运输智慧管控铁路行业重点实验室,兰州730070

出　　处：《都市快轨交通》2024年第2期131-138,共8页Urban Rapid Rail Transit

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72261025);甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2021B-103);兰州交通大学—天津大学联合创新基金(2021056)。

摘　　要：研究城轨运营事故的分布特征和致因机理,对保障运营安全、制定安全管控措施具有重要意义。本文针对1970—2022年国内外425例城轨运营事故,对比分析运营事故的发生原因及时间分布特征。基于致因机理并结合主成分分析法,构建城轨运营安全评价体系,提出基于博弈论的组合权重评价方法,并以1990—2022年我国274例运营事故数据为例,结合专家打分情况,从宏观角度分析我国城轨运营安全状况。研究结果表明:引发运营事故的原因包括人员因素、设备因素和环境因素,其中国内和国外由设备原因导致的运营事故占比最高,分别为65%、56%,1月、3月、7月、8月和12月为事故频发月份,与客流高峰月份相同;组合赋权法既考虑客观统计数据中的信息量,又结合主观专家的经验积累,其评价结果与统计结果相差较小,证明评价方法的可行性。Studying the distribution characteristics and mechanisms of urban rail transit accidents is important for ensuring operational safety and formulating safety control measures.This study statistically analyzes 425 local and international urban rail transit operation accidents from 1970 to 2022 and compares and analyzes the causes and time distribution characteristics of operation accidents.Based on the cause mechanism and principal component analysis method,a safety evaluation system for urban rail transit operations was constructed,and a combined weight evaluation method based on game theory was proposed.Taking the data of 274 operational accidents in China from 1990 to 2022 as an example,combined with expert scoring,the safety status of urban rail transit operations in China was analyzed from a macro perspective.The results indicated that the factors causing operational accidents included personnel,equipment,and environmental factors.Among them,domestic and foreign operational accidents caused by equipment accounted for the highest proportion of accidents,accounting for 56%and 65%respectively.January,March,July,August,and December were the months with frequent accidents,which were the same as the peak months of passenger flow.The combination weighting method not only considers the amount of information in objective statistical data but also combines the experience accumulation of subjective experts,which makes the evaluation results closer to the actual operation situation and proves the feasibility of the evaluation method.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 运营安全 主成分分析 指标体系 博弈论 

分 类 号：U298.5[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]