数字经济发展与地方税收收入——基于省级面板数据的实证研究  

Digital Economy Development and Local Tax Revenue:An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：郭健 杨昭龙 Guo Jian;Yang Zhaolong

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2024年第3期93-110,共18页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“推进数字技术与制造业深度融合的财税激励机制研究”(23BJY025)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：数字经济是构建现代化经济体系、推动经济高质量发展的重要引擎,在提升资源配置效率、促进产业转型升级的同时,也对地方税收收入产生深刻影响。本文采用2013—2020年省级面板数据,实证分析数字经济发展对地方税收收入的影响。研究结果显示:数字经济发展能够显著促进地方税收收入增长,在东部和西部地区、高市场化水平地区和高人力资本水平地区影响效应更强。机制分析表明,数字经济能够通过推动税收征管改革、促进产业结构升级和降低劳动力错配带动地方税源“提质增量”,进而促进地方税收收入增长。进一步分析发现,数字经济对直接税收入的促进作用大于间接税,契合当前税制改革方向。本文的研究为科学判断数字经济对地方税收收入的总体效应和差异性效应、深入认识数字经济背景下地方税收收入增长路径提供了现实依据,以期助力地方税源建设、促进区域协调发展。The digital economy is an important engine for building a modernized economic system and promoting high-quality economic development,which has a profound impact on local tax revenues while enhancing the efficiency of resource allocation and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.This article empirically analyzes the impact of digital economy development on local tax revenue using provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020.The results of the study show that the development of digital economy can significantly promote the growth of local tax revenues,and the impact effect is stronger in the eastern and western regions,regions with high marketization level and regions with high human capital level.Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy can promote the reform of tax collection and management,promote the upgrading of industrial structure and reduce labor mismatch to drive the‘improve quality and increase quantity’of local tax sources,and then promote the growth of local tax revenues.Further analysis reveals that the digital economy has a greater effect on direct tax revenue than indirect tax,which is in line with the direction of the current tax reform.The research of this article provides a realistic basis for scientifically judging the overall effect and differential effect of digital economy on local tax revenues,and for deeply understanding the growth path of local tax revenues in the context of digital economy,so as to help the construction of local tax sources and promote the coordinated development of the region.

关 键 词：数字经济 地方税收 中介效应 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F49