产业转移与城市人口规模——来自“国家承接产业转移示范区”的证据  

Industrial Transfer and Urban Population Size:Evidence from the National Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones Policy

作　　者：曹倩雯 CAO Qianwen(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2024年第2期23-32,55,共11页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：基于国家级承接产业转移示范区这一外生政策,使用2006—2019年中国288个城市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分模型考察了产业转移承接示范区政策对城市人口规模的影响并进行了机制分析。主要的结论如下:(1)产业转移承接示范区政策使试点城市的人口规模平均增加了5.79%。(2)人口规模的变化引致劳动力资源的再配置,即产业转移承接示范区政策显著增加了试点城市的就业,促进了第三产业的就业。(3)其机制包括产业转移承接示范区政策带来的大量企业进驻、更多的就业机会、地方政府公共品供给水平的提高、吸引人口流入进而扩大城市人口规模。(4)产业转移承接示范区政策效果具有异质性,在经济发展水平高的城市,政策对城市人口规模扩张的促进作用更大。(5)产业转移承接示范区政策通过企业集聚和人口集聚效应改善了区域环境质量。This article employs panel data from 288 cities in China from 2006 to 2019 to examine the impact of the exogenous policy for the establishment of national industrial transfer demonstration zones on urban population size,including a mechanism analysis with a multi-period difference-in-differences model.The main conclusions are as follows.(1) The policy has increased the average population of pilot cities by 5.79 %.(2) This change in population has led to the reallocation of labor resources;that is,the policy has significantly increased employment in pilot cities,promoting employment in tertiary industries.(3) The mechanism for the policy effect is that the industrial transfer demonstration zones have attracted a large number of enterprises to settle,expanding employment opportunities,improving the supply level of local government public goods,attracting population inflows,and expanding the urban population.(4) The policy effects of the industrial transfer demonstration zones are heterogeneous;in cities with high levels of economic development,the policies have a greater promoting effect on urban population growth.(5) The policy of industrial transfer demonstration zones has also improved environmental quality through the effects of enterprise agglomeration and population agglomeration.

关 键 词：承接产业转移 城市人口规模 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]