贸易政策不确定性如何影响出口企业经营风险?  

How Does the Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect the Business Risk of Export Firms?

作　　者：颜忠宝 张跃化 YAN Zhongbao;ZHANG Yuehua(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京102206

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2024年第2期89-98,共10页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目“中国外汇衍生品监管指数构建、监管效果及监管优化研究”(20BJY260)。

摘　　要：在“逆全球化”趋势加剧及贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,我国政策当局应考虑贸易政策的意外调整对于出口企业的风险冲击。利用中国工业企业与海关贸易匹配数据,对贸易政策不确定性与出口企业经营风险之间的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明:贸易政策不确定性会显著增大出口企业经营风险,这一结果在进行了一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析发现:商业信用紧缩、生产成本上升以及融资约束加剧是上述影响的作用渠道;同时,金融市场化与贸易自由化能够显著调节两者间的正向关系。异质性分析发现:贸易政策不确定性对于进行一般贸易、贸易依存度较高以及出口目的地非贸易协定国的出口企业的风险冲击更大。基于此,我国政府部门应进一步夯实“稳外贸”与“防风险”工作,同时积极推进金融市场化与贸易自由化进程。Given increasing “anti-globalization” sentiments and the rise of trade protectionism,China's policy authorities should consider the risk impact on export enterprises of unexpected adjustments of trade policy.This paper employs trade matching data of Chinese industrial enterprises and Chinese customs records,finding that uncertainty around trade policy will significantly increase the operating risk of export enterprises;the result holds even after a series of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis shows that the commercial credit crunch,rising production costs,and the intensification of financing constraints are channels for the above effects.At the same time,financial marketization and trade liberalization can significantly adjust the positive relationship between them.Heterogeneity analysis shows that trade policy uncertainty has a greater impact on the risk of export enterprises that are engaged in general trade,are more trade-dependent,and export to destinations other than those with which China has a trade agreement.China's government departments should further consolidate the work of “stabilizing foreign trade” and “preventing risks” and actively promote financial marketization and trade liberalization.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 出口企业 经营风险 金融市场化 贸易自由化 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]