中国地方政府显性负债率的测算与时空特征分析——来自2016—2020年355个城市的经验证据  

Measurement and Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Explicit Debt Ratio of Local Governments in China——Empirical Evidence in 2016-2020 from 355 Cities

作　　者：辛冲冲 徐斯旸 XIN Chongchong;XU Siyang(Editorial Department of Beijing Social Sciences,Beijing Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Finance and Investment,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou Guangdong 510521,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市社会科学院《北京社会科学》编辑部,北京100101 [2]广东金融学院金融与投资学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期158-174,共17页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“经济高质量发展背景下地方政府债务扩张的资源配置效应及其优化路径研究”(72003046);国家社会科学基金项目“促进京津冀协同创新的地方政府间财政策略性互动机制研究”(17BJY162)。

摘　　要：科学准确地刻画中国地方政府债务规模的发展趋势和空间特征是科学制定地方政府债务风险防范化解的政策举措的重要前提。基于官方公布的城市层面地方政府债务与GDP数据,利用编制的2016—2020年355个城市地方政府负债率指标数据,综合运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、标准差椭圆、探索性空间数据分析、变异系数和空间面板模型解析中国地方政府负债率的时空演化特征。研究发现:(1)全国整体与东、中、西和东北四个区域地方政府负债率总体均呈快速上升态势,各区域地方政府负债率及增速均表现为“东北>西部>东部>中部”的空间格局,且全国整体与各区域均呈不同程度的梯度效应,均存在多极分化现象。(2)样本期内,地方政府负债率的总体差异、区域内差异和区域间差异均呈稳步下降态势,其中造成总体差异的主要贡献者是区域间差异,其次是超变密度,同样产生较大影响,最后是区域内差异,其影响度较小。(3)地方政府负债率的区位分布呈偏东北—偏西南的空间格局,分布重心处于河南与湖北两省交界地带。(4)地方政府负债率空间集聚模式以“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚为主,其中“高—高”型集聚的城市相对较少且主要集中分布在东北、华北、西南、西北等地区。(5)全国整体及四大区域地方政府负债率不仅都存在σ收敛趋势,也均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征,且空间溢出效应在β收敛中发挥重要作用,但不同区域这一效应具有显著差异。Scientifically and accurately depicting the development trend and spatial characteristics of China’s local government debt scale is an important premise for scientifically formulating policies and measures to prevent and resolve local governments’debt risks.Based on the official data of local government debt and GDP at city level,using the compiled data in 2016—2020 of local government debt ratio of 355 cities,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of local government debt ratio in China by using nuclear density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient,standard deviation ellipse,exploratory spatial data analysis,coefficient of variation and spatial panel model.The findings are as follows:First,the debt ratios of local governments in the whole country and the four regions—East,Central,West and Northeast China-all showed a rapid upward trend,and the debt ratios and growth rates of local governments in each region showed a spatial pattern of“Northeast>West>East>Central China”,and the whole country and all regions showed gradient effects in different degrees,and there were multipolar differentiation phenomena.Second,during the sample period,the overall difference,intra-regional difference and inter-regional difference of the debt ratio of local governments showed a steady downward trend,among which the main contributor to the overall difference was inter-regional difference,followed by super-variable density,which also had a greater impact,and finally intra-regional difference,which had a smaller impact.Third,the location distribution of local government debt ratio showed a spatial pattern of northeast-southwest,with the distribution center at the junction of Henan and Hubei provinces.Fourthly,the spatial agglomeration mode of local government debt ratio is dominated by“high-high”agglomeration and“low-low”agglomeration,among which“high-high”agglomeration cities are relatively few and mainly distributed in northeast,north,southwest and northwest regions.Fifth,the debt r

关 键 词：地方政府债务 负债率 分布动态演进 地区差异 区位分布 集聚模式 空间收敛 

分 类 号：F810.45[经济管理—财政学]