清代财政能力的变化趋势与量化度量——基于雍乾嘉道四朝户部银库财政收支数据的尝试性考察  

The Changing Trend and Quantitative Measurement of Fiscal Capacity in the Qing Dynasty-A Tentative Study on the Financial Revenue and Expenditure Data of Silver Treasury of the Ministry of Revenue in the Four Periods of Yongzheng,Qianlong,Jiaqing and Daoguang of the Qing Dynasty

作　　者：赵红军[1] 陈娜 ZHAO Hongjun;CHEN Na(School of Finance and Business,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期101-112,124,共13页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国式现代化的历史脉络与推进路径”(23AZD008);国家社会科学基金一般项目“改革开放四十年中中国发展治理经验的经济理论贡献与世界影响研究”(18BJL003)的研究成果。

摘　　要：财政能力被认为是导致东西方在18—19世纪出现经济大分流的影响因素之一,但学界有关清代财政能力的量化度量仍是研究的空白点。根据清代户部银库收支数据,分析了清代财政收支变化的时间趋势,并基于财政盈余和实物折算两个维度构建了雍正、乾隆、嘉庆和道光四朝的财政能力指数,分析了这一时期的财政能力指数与相关经济变量之间的相关关系。结论显示:基于户部财政收支构建的清代前期的财政能力指数与相关宏观变量存在着预期关联关系,对当时人们的工资、福利与生活成本具有显著解释力。Fiscal capacity is considered to be an important reason for the economic divergence between the East and the West in the 18th and 19th centuries,but the quantitative measurement of fiscal capacity in the Qing Dynasty is still a research gap in aca⁃demia.Based on the revenue and expenditure data of silver treasury of the Ministry of Revenue in the Qing Dynasty,this paper aims to analyze the time trend of changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure during this period.In addition,based on the two di⁃mensions of fiscal surplus and physical conversion,the fiscal capacity index of the Yongzheng,Qianlong,Jiaqing,and Daoguang periods is constructed,and the correlation between the fiscal capacity index and related economic variables during this period is further discussed.The conclusion shows that there is an expected correlation between the fiscal capacity index construc⁃ted based on the fiscal revenue and expenditure of the Ministry of Revenue in the early Qing Dynasty and relevant macro varia⁃bles,which has significant explanatory power for the wages,welfares,and cost of living at that time.This has important aca⁃demic reference value for quantitative analysis on the national capacity of the Qing Dynasty.

关 键 词：财政能力 国家能力 指数构建 财政收支 户部银库 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]