基于入户调查的农村民用源排放清单与清洁能源政策的减排效果  

Emission inventory of rural civilian sources surveyed in households and the emission reduction effects of clean energy policies

作　　者：王晨 鲍艾 刘俊 周鑫[2] 赵相怡 彭丽 王玉 安浩文 唐晓龙 易红宏 WANG Chen;BAO Ai;LIU Jun;ZHOU Xin;ZHAO Xiang-yi;PENG Li;WANG Yu;AN Hao-wen;TANG Xiao-long;YI Hong-hong(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083;School of Marxism,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学马克思主义学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第5期2811-2822,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42375171,42105157);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8192024);北京科技大学青年教师学科交叉研究项目(6600083);能源基金会项目(G-2109-33379,G-2306-34754);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(6500166)。

摘　　要：以全国农村生活燃料消费入户调查数据建立的能源消费模型为基础,模拟2015年我国县级煤炭与生物质消费水平,构建农村生活能源的温室气体与大气污染物排放清单.在此基础上,以2025年作为政策效应年份,评估农村生活能源清洁转型的减排效果.结果表明,2015年我国农村居民煤炭和生物质燃料的消耗量分别为169.5和242.0Mt,由此产生的PM_(2.5)、VOCs、SO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、CO_(2)排放量分别为2.91Mt、1.98Mt、2.39Mt、524.3kt、43.0Mt和642.9Mt,其中河北省是排放最高的省份.到2025年,在无政策作用情景下,温室气体与空气污染物排放总量将比2015年下降约15%,而在清洁转型政策作用最为明显的北方采暖地区,相对于无政策作用情景,PM_(2.5)、VOCs、SO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、CO_(2)的排放量分别下降76.0%、76.7%、75.6%、55.4%、76.6%、43.2%,具有较理想的污染减排效果.Based on the energy consumption model established by the national rural domestic fuel consumption survey data,this study simulated the coal and biomass consumption level at the county level in 2015,and constructed the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission inventory of rural domestic energy.On this basis,2025 is taken as the policy effect year to evaluate the emission reduction effect of the clean transformation of rural living energy.The results show that the consumption of coal and biomass fuel by rural residents in 2015 was 169.5Mt and 242.0Mt,respectively.The resulting emissions of PM_(2.5),VOCs,SO_(2),NO_(x),CO and CO_(2) were 2.91Mt,1.98Mt,2.39Mt,524.3kt,43.0Mt and 642.9Mt respectively,among which Hebei Province was the highest emission province.By 2025,the total emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the no-policy scenario will be reduced by about 15%compared with 2015,and in the northern heating region,where the role of clean transition policies is most obvious,compared with the no-policy scenario,The emissions of PM_(2.5),VOCs,SO_(2),NO_(x),CO and CO_(2) were reduced by 76.0%、76.7%、75.6%、55.4%、76.6%and 43.2%,respectively,which has an ideal pollution reduction effect.

关 键 词：农村生活能源 空气污染 排放清单 清洁取暖 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]