中东“抵抗轴心”的兴起及前景  

The Rise of the“Axis of Resistance”in the Middle East and Its Prospects

作　　者：李睿恒 Li Ruiheng

机构地区：[1]北京大学外国语学院阿拉伯语系

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第4期60-76,139,共18页

基　　金：2022年度国家社科基金优秀博士论文出版项目(编号:22FYB031)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,中东地区“抵抗轴心”呈现持续兴起之势,在意识形态、行动主体、联盟体系与斗争方式四个层面展现出新内涵,反映了中东地区反美力量的深刻变化。“抵抗轴心”的兴起对中东和全球地缘政治演变产生了重要影响:改变了地区亲美与反美阵营间的力量对比,加剧两个阵营的地缘战略竞争;打乱了美国的中东战略布局,加大了大国的地区博弈;保障了伊朗的国家安全和中东地区的局势稳定。在本轮巴以冲突激化的背景下,“抵抗轴心”坚持斗而不破的战略底线,对内部差异进行动态整合,并在各自国内开启合法化与制度化转型进程,其地缘政治影响力将不断上升。The“Axis of Resistance”in the Middle East has continued to rise in recent years.New ideologies,actors,alliance systems and methods of struggle have brought profound changes to the development trend of anti-American forces in the Middle East.This has had important impact on the geopolitical evolution of the Middle East and the world in three aspects.The rise of the“Axis of Resistance”has changed the balance of power between the pro-American and anti-American camps in the region,which intensified the geostrategic competition between the two camps;it has disrupted the US strategy in the Middle East and further opened up space for major countries to compete in the region;it has guaranteed Iran’s fundamental national security and the stability of the Middle East.Against the background of the current round of Palestinian–Israeli conflict,the“Axis of Resistance”adheres to the strategic bottom line of“fighting without breaking”,adopts a dynamic integration approach to manage the internal differences between its allies,and promotes the legalization and institutionalization of various“Resistance”forces in their own countries.The three development trends in the transformation process determine the survival of the“Axis of Resistance”and its rising geopolitical influence.

关 键 词：“抵抗轴心” 非国家行为体 中东政治 大国博弈 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]