央行言辞沟通与银行信贷投放:总量与结构效应  

Central Bank Communication and Bank Credit Allocation:Total and Structural Effects

作　　者：王宇伟 刘宏雅 WANG Yuwei;LIU Hongya(Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center,Nanjing University;School of Economics,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210093 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第11期78-96,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD059,22&ZD120);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(20YJA790066)的资助。

摘　　要：本文利用2012—2021年46家商业银行数据,从总量及结构两方面实证检验央行言辞沟通对商业银行信贷投放行为的影响。研究发现:(1)央行言辞沟通的方向,对商业银行信贷投放总量形成显著的正向影响,央行言辞沟通的信息传递效率、商业银行信贷供给的意愿和能力,都会影响央行言辞沟通有效性;(2)央行言辞沟通对银行信贷投放总量的影响存在非对称性,宽松方向的言辞沟通比紧缩方向的言辞沟通影响更强;(3)分行业研究发现,在样本期内,宽松方向言辞沟通带来的信贷增量资金,主要流入到政府平台和房地产,未能有效支持制造业发展;紧缩方向的言辞沟通显著抑制了制造业领域的信贷投放,对政府平台和房地产未构成显著影响;(4)2018年深化金融供给侧结构性改革后,信贷资源配置结构明显改善,信贷资金服务实体经济能力显著增强。In recent years,expectation management tools,represented by words communication of central bank,are playing more and more important roles in guiding market expectations and behaviors.China's financial system is dominated by banks,so whether the expectations of banks and their behaviors in credit allocation can be well managed by words communication of central bank,is extremely crucial for improving the ability of financial sectors in serving the real economy and building a more effective monetary policy system.Currently,it's necessary for banks to pursue reasonable credit growth with balanced allocation in order to ensure the monetary policy to be flexible,moderate,precise,and effective.Can words communication of central bank achieve these goals and how it to achieve these?There are few studies have given the explicit answers.Based on the monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China and other relevant texts,we construct the words communication index,and use the data of 46 commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2021 to empirically study the impact of words communication on the credit allocation of commercial banks in terms of both the total and structural effects.The main findings are as follows:(1)The direction of words communication has a significant positive impact on the credit supply of commercial banks,and the effectiveness of words communication is affected by the efficiency of information transmission and the willingness and ability of banks to supply credit.(2)There is an asymmetrical effect on the influence of the words communication on the bank credit supply.More precisely,the influence of the words communication in the loose direction is stronger than it in the tight direction.(3)By analyzing samples from different industries,we find that the credit increment caused by loose communication mainly flowed into the government platforms and real estate,which failed to effectively support the development of the manufacturing industry;while the tight communication inhibited the credit flowing into the

关 键 词：预期管理 言辞沟通 信贷总量 信贷结构 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]