中国制造业的产能过剩与就业波动  

Manufacturing Overcapacity and Employment Volatility in China

作　　者：皮建才[1] 宋大强 PI Jiancai;SONG Daqiang(School of Economics,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第11期115-131,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：江苏省第五期“333工程”科研资助项目(BRA2019041);江苏省“卓博计划”(20220ZB71)的资助。

摘　　要：本文测算了各地区行业层面的产能过剩指数和就业增长率,分析了产能过剩与就业波动之间的内在联系。结果表明:产能过剩对我国整体就业增长率的抑制作用显著;分地区来看,产能过剩对东部地区就业增长率的抑制作用是全国水平的2倍以上,而产能过剩对就业增长率的负向影响在中西部地区不明显;分企业所有制来看,产能过剩对就业增长的排斥作用只在民营企业中显著;分行业性质来看,由制造业产能过剩引起的就业排斥现象,在劳动密集型行业中表现得较为明显,在技术密集型行业与资本密集型行业中表现得不明显;剔除去产能因素对劳动力需求的影响,产能过剩的就业波动效应依然显著。机制检验发现,金融化程度对制造业产能过剩引起的就业波动起正向调节作用,而企业社会责任和产业结构升级对制造业产能过剩引起的就业波动起负向调节作用。本文为我国优化稳就业政策提供了有益参考。In light of China's transition to a new phase of economic development,the focus on quality is gaining prominence in driving economic growth.Enterprises that fail to meet criteria regarding scale,technology,and environmental protection experience a gradual accumulation of excess production capacity.Generally speaking,the longer overcapacity persists,the more profound its impact on the economy becomes.On the one hand,the rapid growth of the economy may be hindered by the existence of overcapacity,which in turn may slow down employment expansion.On the other hand,overcapacity will also force the adjustment of domestic industrial structure,leading to an increased demand for innovative and high skilled labor by enterprises.Thus,questions arise:What is the impact of overcapacity on employment?Are there region,ownership,and industry-related disparities in this impact?If so,what factors contribute to these differences?Answering the above questions will not only enhance our understanding of the relationship between overcapacity and employment volatility,but also aid in identifying countermeasures to mitigate the adverse effect of overcapacity.To explore this topic,this article utilizes industrial enterprise data from China spanning 1998 to 2007,as well as panel data from various manufacturing sub-industries across different regions in China from 1999 to 2020.The employment growth rate of different industries in different regions is calculated,and the capacity utilization rate is measured using the stochastic frontier analysis(SFA)method.Subsequently,we delve into the relationship between overcapacity and employment growth in detail.In addition,we eliminate the potential impact of resolving overcapacity on labor demand and re-examine the relationship between overcapacity and employment volatility.Furthermore,we characterize manufacturing employment volatility from three dimensions:the employment creation rate,the employment destruction rate,and the employment net growth rate.Meanwhile,we endeavor to identify the mechanisms

关 键 词：产能过剩 就业波动 就业创造 就业破坏 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2