“双碳”目标下城市低碳交通推行与成效分析——基于博弈和综合评价视角  

Implementation and Effectiveness Analysis of Urban Low-carbon Transportation Under the Goal of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:Based on the Perspective of Game Theory and Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：张路路 刘洁 张玉瑾 Zhang Lulu;Liu Jie;Zhang Yujin(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Department of Humanities and Management,Hebei University of Chinese Medicine,Shijiazhuang 050200,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]河北中医药大学人文管理系,河北石家庄050200

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第7期197-206,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：以低碳交通为背景,以城市低碳交通推行前、后期为节点,构建以居民信息完备度为界点的政府与居民初期最优均衡的动态博弈和“社会-经济-自然”复合系统为指标层的CM-CV组合赋权低碳综合评价体系,并以哈尔滨为例,动态测算2016—2021年低其碳综合效益指数和生态综合指数(ECI)。结果表明,低碳交通推行初期,无论居民处于何种信息状态,[{积极,不积极},参与]都是最优均衡;低碳化实施后期的所选年间,哈尔滨城市低碳建设各效益指数均呈上升趋势,且“社会效益>经济效益>自然效益”,自然效益处于潜力发展期l;整体上哈尔滨的ECI<0.8,仍处于生态建设发展期,而分项中,大多指标评价结果小于标准现状值,与处于中等发展水平相一致。最后,提出鼓励居民采取低碳选择、继续推行低碳投入,尤其是提升低碳效率和居民生活质量,为生态文明建设及交通强国战略背景下的交通低碳区域建设提供经验参考。Taking low-carbon transportation as the background,and the early and late stages of urban low-carbon transportation implementation as nodes,It constructs a dynamic game of initial optimal equilibrium between the government and residents with residents'information completeness as the boundary point,and a CM-CV combination weighting low-carbon comprehensive evaluation system with the social-economic-natural composite system as the indicator layer.Taking Harbin as an example,the low-carbon comprehensive benefit index and ecological comprehensive index from 2016 to 2021 were dynamically calculated.The results show that:in the early stage of lowcarbon transportation implementation,no matter what information state the residents are in,[{active,inactive},participation]is the optimal equilibrium;during the selected years in the later stages of low-carbon implementation,all benefit indexes of Harbin's urban low-carbon construction showed an upward trend,and social benefits>economic benefits>natural benefits;and natural benefits are in the potential development period.Overall,the ECI is<0.8,indicating that it is still in the development stage of ecological construction;among the sub-items,most of the index evaluation results are less than the standard current value,consistent with being at a medium development level.Finally,it is proposed to encourage residents to choose low-carbon options and continue to promote low-carbon investment,especially to improve low-carbon efficiency and residents'quality of life,providing empirical reference for the construction of ecological civilization and the construction of low-carbon transportation areas under the strategic background of a strong transportation country.

关 键 词：低碳交通 组合赋权法 博弈 低碳效益 生态综合指数 

分 类 号：F572.88[经济管理—产业经济] G301[文化科学]