“双碳”背景下北京市居住建筑运行碳排放预测研究  

Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction of Residential Buildings in Beijing Under the Background of"Double Carbon"

作　　者：姜军[1] 卢逸玄 牛一鸣 JIANG Jun;LU Yixuan;NIU Yiming(School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2024年第2期19-24,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

摘　　要：针对“双碳”目标下北京市面临的减碳压力,以居住建筑运行阶段的碳排放为切入点,运用LCA理论,结合STIRPAT模型、情景分析法、蒙特卡罗模拟法等研究方法,对居住建筑运行碳排放未来发展趋势做了合理预估。研究表明,有9个影响因素对北京市居住建筑运行碳排放存在显著影响。在北京市“十四五”节能减排政策的作用下,居住建筑运行碳排放速率明显降低,但依然不能实现居住建筑“碳达峰”目标。常住人口、集中采暖面积、居民生活能耗、单位GDP能耗、新建居住面积对北京市居住建筑碳减排贡献最大。因此居住建筑碳减排工作要重点关注发展规划的完善、人口数量控制、居住建筑开发面积;推行绿色清洁能源,改善能源结构,强化监督管理;针对不同主体需求实行差异化激励政策。Facing the carbon reduction pressure faced by Beijing under the"Double Carbon"goal,this study makes a reasonable prediction of the future development trend of carbon emission of residential buildings in the operation stage by using the LCA theory and combining the STIRPAT model,scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method,This study found that there are 9 influencing factors have significant effects on the operating carbon emissions of residential buildings in Beijing.Under the effect of Beijing's"14th Five-Year Plan"energy conservation and emission reduction policy,the operating carbon emission rate of residential buildings has significantly decreased,but it still cannot achieve the"carbon peak"target of residential buildings.Permanent resident population,centralized heating area,residential energy consumption,energy consumption per unit GDP,and newly built residential area contribute the most to the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings in Beijing.Therefore,the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings should focus on the improvement of development planning,population control,residential building development areas;promoting green and clean energy,improving of the energy mix,and strengthening supervision and management:implementing differentiated incentive policies for different subjects.

关 键 词：居住建筑 碳排放预测 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]