2021年山东夏季降水异常特征及成因分析  

Characteristics and Mechanism of Summer Rainfall in Shandong in 2021

作　　者：商林 孟祥新[1,2] 汤子东 SHANG Lin;MENG Xiangxin;TANG Zidong(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Ji'nan 250031,China;Shandong Climate Center,Ji'nan 250031,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第2期61-67,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41705025);山东省气象局面上项目(2016sdqxm02);山东省气象局引导类项目(2021SDYD05)。

摘　　要：基于NCEP再分析资料和山东省122个国家地面观测站数据,对2021年山东夏季降水异常特征及成因进行研究。2021年夏季山东平均降水量较常年偏多25.3%,降雨过程较多,其中,6月降水偏多主要是由于西太平洋副热带高压(简称“副高”)北抬造成;7月中旬降水偏多主要是由于副高强度偏强,副高边缘暖湿气流为山东降水提供了充足水汽,下旬降水偏多是由于台风“烟花”带来强降水;8月降水偏多主要是下旬副高强度偏强,水汽输送充沛造成。此外,2021年夏季山东降水空间分布不均匀,呈西多东少的空间分布。进一步分析近3次拉尼娜事件发现,夏季副高强度偏强是造成近3个拉尼娜衰减年夏季山东降水空间分布异常的主要原因。夏季副高强度是拉尼娜次年山东夏季降水的重要预测因子。Based on the NCEP reanalysis data and precipitation data from 122 meteorological stations,this study examines the rainfall anomalies and mechanisms during the summer of 2021 in Shandong province.The average summer rainfall in Shandong province in 2021 exceeds the normal by 25.3%,accompanied by an increased frequency of rainfall events.Another notable characteristic of summer rainfall in Shandong province is its uniform spatial distribution,with greater rainfall in the west and less rainfall in the east.Further analysis of the three most recent La Nina events reveals that the spatial distribution anomalies of summer rainfall in Shandong province during the La Nina decay period are attributed to the intensified subtropical high.The intensity of the subtropical high serves as a significant predictor during the La Nina decay period in Shandong province.

关 键 词：山东夏季降水 拉尼娜 西太平洋副热带高压 位势高度场 风场 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]