廊坊市雷暴大风多普勒雷达特征指标预警应用分析  

Application Analysis of Doppler Radar Characteristics Index Early Warning for Thunderstorm Gale in Langfang City

作　　者：王洪峰[1] 周涛 王清川 郭志强[3] 黄浩杰 王鹤婷 刘淇淇 WANG Hongfeng;ZHOU Tao;WANG Qingchuan;GUO Zhiqiang;HUANG Haojie;WANG Heting;LIU Qiqi(Handan Meteorological Bureau,Handan 056001,China;Langfang Meteorological Bureau,Langfang 065000,China;Baoding Meteorological Bureau,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]邯郸市气象局,河北邯郸056001 [2]廊坊市气象局,河北廊坊065000 [3]保定市气象局,河北保定071000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第2期114-122,共9页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报员项目(CMAYBY2020-012);河北省气象局科技项目(21zc06)。

摘　　要：利用北京、天津和沧州多普勒天气雷达对2010—2019年廊坊市发生的29次雷暴大风天气过程中的阵风锋、径向速度大值区、垂直累积液态水含量(VIL)≥40 kg·m^(-2)等预警指标进行验证分析,结果表明:51.9%的站次出现了阵风锋,其中61.0%的雷暴大风出现在主体回波移动前方中部到右侧;17 m·s^(-1)以上大风速区作为预警指标,预警的平均提前量达47.2 min。100%的弓形回波雷暴大风出现前上游及可能影响区域存在≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区,以此发布预警可提前37.1 min;71.4%的雷暴大风站点上空或10 km范围内VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2),平均预警提前量最高,达到52.7 min;依据带状回波前侧或右前侧出现阵风锋发布预警的平均提前量为60.6 min。73.7%的块状回波雷暴大风天气上游及可能影响区域有≥17 m·s^(-1)的大风速区。结合上游及可能影响区域≥17 m·s^(-1)和≥20 m·s^(-1)大风速区、阵风锋、VIL≥40 kg·m^(-2)出现位置可以提前30~60 min发布雷暴大风预警信号,且可更加精准地预测灾害性大风的落区、出现时间和强度。The gust front,high speed value area and other warning indicators were verified and analyzed by using Doppler weather radar in Beijing,Tianjin and Cangzhou during 29 thunderstorm gale weather processes in Langfang city from 2010 to 2019.The results showed that:The gust front appeared in 51.9%of the stations,and 61.0%of the thunderstorms appeared in the center to the right of the main echo moving ahead.The area with high wind speed above 17 m·s^(-1) on the radial velocity chart of 0.5°elevation angle was taken as the warning index,and the average advance of warning was 47.2 min.There was a high wind speed area above 17 m·s^(-1) in the upstream and possibly affected area before 100%bow echo thunderstorms appeared,so the early warning could be issued 37.1 min in advance.The average warning advance amount was the highest,reaching 52.7 min,in the 71.4%thunderstorm wind stations and areas where VIL was above 40 kg·m^(-2) within 10 km of thunderstorm stations.In 73.7%of the massive echo thunderstorms,there were large wind speed areas with radial velocity above 17 m·s^(-1) in the upstream and possibly affected areas.Combined with above 17 m·s^(-1) and above 20 m·s^(-1),gust front,and VIL above 40 kg·m^(-2) in the upstream and possible influence areas,thunderstorm gale warning signals can be issued 30-60 min in advance,and the falling area,occurrence time and intensity of catastrophic gale can be predicted more accurately.

关 键 词：雷暴大风 雷达回波特征 预警指标 阵风锋 弓形回波 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]