四川省滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较研究  

A Comparative Study on Landslide Hazard Risk Assessment Models in Sichuan Province

作　　者：刘亚彬 刘云腾 朱真梅 刘志红[4] 范智高 史红人 LIU Yabin;LIU Yunteng;ZHU Zhenmei;LIU Zhihong;FAN Zhigao;SHI Hongren(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Rong County Meteorological Bureau,Zigong 643100,China;College of Management,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]荣县气象局,四川自贡643100 [3]成都信息工程大学管理学院,四川成都610225 [4]成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2024年第1期101-107,共7页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：四川省科技厅重点研发资助项目(2022YFS0542)。

摘　　要：为探讨四川省滑坡灾害分布状况及对滑坡灾害危险性评价建模效果进行比较,以四川省为研究区,分析地质灾害尤其是滑坡灾害的时空分布,运用信息量法、基于信息量的逻辑回归法、随机森林法3种方法,取坡度、植被覆盖率、地震烈度、断层密度及年累计降雨量5个因子建立危险性评价模型,结合ROC曲线和AUC值对模型性能进行精度比较。研究结果表明:(1)坡度因子对滑坡灾害的贡献最大,3种评价模型中坡度、地震烈度及降雨3个因子均有较大贡献。(2)滑坡灾害主要分布于地震带附近,在成都平原处灾害发生几率最小。(3)3种评价方法均适用于滑坡危险性区划工作,具有良好的建模效果。相对于其他两种模型,逻辑回归模型在实际情况下更加适合四川省滑坡灾害的危险性评价工作。To explore the distribution of landslide disasters in Sichuan Province and compare the modeling effect of landslide hazard risk assessment,this paper takes Sichuan Province as the research area to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of geological disasters,especially landslide disasters,and uses three methods:information quantity method,information-based logistic regression method,and random forest method,to establish a risk evaluation model based on five factors:slope,vegetation coverage,seismic intensity,fault density and annual cumulative rainfall.This paper combines the ROC curve and AUC value to accurately compare the model performance.The results show that:(1)The slope factor has the greatest contribution to landslide disasters,and the three factors of the slope,seismic intensity and rainfall in the three evaluation models have a greater impact.(2)Landslide disasters are mainly distributed near seismic zones,and the probability of disasters is the smallest in the Chengdu Plain.(3)The three evaluation methods are suitable for landslide hazard zoning and have good modeling effects.Among the three models,the logistic regression model is more suitable for the risk assessment of landslide disasters in Sichuan Province under actual circumstances.

关 键 词：滑坡灾害 信息量方法 随机森林方法 逻辑回归方法 模型评价 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]