保山烟区降水及其干旱风险性评价区划  

Assessment Regionalization of Precipitation and Drought Risk in Baoshan Tobacco Planting Area

作　　者：钟燕华 景元书[1] 魏远 李维韬 吉梦宇 ZHONG Yanhua;JING Yuanshu;WEI Yuan;LI Weitao;JI Mengyu(Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecasting Warning and Assessment/School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;School of Automation,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Baoshan Meteorological Bureau,Baoshan,Yunan 678000)

机构地区：[1]气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学自动化学院,南京210044 [3]保山市气象局,云南保山678000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第11期112-120,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：红塔烟草集团有限责任公司项目“气象因子对烟叶产质量的影响研究及应用”(S-6019001);中国科学院数字地球重点实验室开放基金项目“冬小麦病害监测预警与气象资料耦合方法”(2018LDE003);南京信息工程大学大学生创新训练项目“基于气候年型的烟叶产量与品质的精细化预测研究”(XJDC202210300494)。

摘　　要：以保山各县区2015—2020年11个烤烟气象站点的逐日降水量和气温数据为基础资料,对云南保山烤烟生长发育过程中降雨风险指标及其时空分布特征进行分析,并构建干旱危险性评价模型,旨在为保山烤烟安全生产及风险防范策略制定提供依据。结合地理信息系统软件ArcGis和气候倾向率、趋势系数等相关数理统计方法分析保山烟区降水和干旱风险的时空分布特征。采用层次分析法和干旱危险性评价模型,借助GIS平台实现保山烟区的干旱灾害危险性评价区划。结果表明:洪涝高风险地区主要集中在保山西部的龙陵和腾冲地区,龙陵年降水量在1060~1865.6 mm,腾冲年降水量在804~1348.5 mm,均大于烤烟正常需水量的2倍,其中腾冲猴桥地区气候倾向率最大,通过了0.01显著性检验,逐年上升趋势十分显著。烤烟旺长期干旱风险主要发生在保山中部和东部。施甸旧城和隆阳区附近的干旱风险最高,达到严重风险以上;保山中部和东部大部分地区干旱危险性风险都在中等风险以下,利于烤烟种植。本文研究阐明了保山烟区的水分气候条件对烤烟种植的重要影响,有利于保山地区烤烟优质生产及当地政府气象防灾减灾策略制定。Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 11 flue-cured tobacco meteorological stations in Baoshan County from 2015 to 2020,the rainfall risk index and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed during the growth and development of Baoshan flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province,and the drought risk assessment model was constructed to provide a basis for the formulation of safe production and risk prevention strategies for Baoshan flue-cured tobacco.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and drought risk in Baoshan tobacco planting area were analyzed by using geographic information system software ArcGis and relevant mathematical statistics methods such as climate tendency rate and trend coefficient.Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and drought risk assessment model,drought hazard assessment regionalization in Baoshan tobacco planting area was realized with the help of GIS platform.The results showed that the annual precipitation of Longling and Tengchong ranged from 1060 to 1865.6mm and 804 to 1348.5mm respectively,both of which were more than two times of the normal water requirement of flue-cured tobacco.The Houqiao area in Tengchong had the highest climatic tendency rate,which passed 0.01 significance test and showed a significant increasing trend year by year.The drought risk of flue-cured tobacco in vigorous growth period mainly occurred in central and eastern Baoshan.The drought risk near old city of Shidian and Longyang District was the highest,reaching above the severe risk.The drought risk in the central and eastern parts of Baoshan was below the medium risk,which was conducive to flue-cured tobacco planting.This paper studied and clarified the important influence of moisture and climate conditions on flue-cured tobacco planting in Baoshan tobacco planting area,which was conducive to the quality production of flue-cured tobacco in Baoshan and the formulation of local government's meteorological disaster prevention and reduction str

关 键 词：保山 烤烟 降雨 干旱风险性 区划 评价 

分 类 号：S514[农业科学—作物学] S162.2