基于PLUS模型的2030年滹沱河流域山区段生态承载力时空格局多情景预测  

Multi-scenario prediction of the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the mountain section of Hutuo River basin in 2030 based on the PLUS model

作　　者：席梅竹[1,2] 赵中秋[1,3] 赵颖丽[4] XI Meizhu;ZHAO Zhongqiu;ZHAO Yingli(School of Land Sciences&Technology,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Department of Geography,Xinzhou Normal University,Xinzhou 034000,China;Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100035,China;Research and Planning Institute of Land and Resources in Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京100083 [2]忻州师范学院地理系,山西忻州034000 [3]自然资源部土地整治重点实验室,北京100035 [4]山西省国土资源调查规划院,太原030024

出　　处：《农业资源与环境学报》2024年第3期518-529,共12页Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment

基　　金：山西省哲学社会科学规划办项目(2019B414)。

摘　　要：为探讨滹沱河流域山区段当前及未来不同发展情景下生态承载力的时空变化,应用植被净初级生产力改进的生态足迹模型测算分析了流域2015—2020年生态承载力的时空格局变化,并借助经过精度验证的PLUS模型对2030年区域自然发展、经济发展及生态保护三种发展情景下的生态承载力时空格局进行预测。结果表明:2015—2030年滹沱河流域山区段单位面积生态承载力整体格局变化不大,但内部空间分异明显,整体呈东南及西北区域单位面积生态承载力高,而东北、西南部区域单位面积生态承载力低的特点。2015—2020年区域生态承载力总量由1.0780×10^(6)bhm^(2)增加到1.0796×10^(6)bhm^(2),呈上升趋势;2030年自然发展和经济发展情景下区域生态承载力总量分别为1.0783×10^(6)、1.0782×10^(6)bhm^(2),与2020年相比呈下降趋势,草地向耕地的转移、林地向建设用地的转移是生态承载力下降的主要原因;2030年生态保护情景下生态承载力总量为1.0802×10^(6)bhm^(2),与2020年相比呈上升趋势,耕地向林地、草地转移是区域生态承载力增加的主要原因。各类用地的生态承载力总量由高到低依次为草地>耕地>林地>建设用地>水域,生态保护情景有益于林地、草地生态承载力总量的增加,经济发展情景有益于耕地和建设用地生态承载力总量的增加,水域生态承载力总量在各种发展情景下变化较小。生态保护情景更有利于未来生态承载力的增加,符合区域未来发展方向。严格控制草地向耕地的转变以及林地向建设用地的转变,继续实施退耕还林、还草生态工程,加强区域废弃矿山生态复垦的力度,将会提高区域未来生态承载力,实现区域生态安全及经济、社会、生态的可持续发展。Measuring ecological carrying capacity is relevant to regional ecological security.In order to explore the spatial and temporal changes in the ecological carrying capacity in the mountainous section of the Hutuo River basin in recent years and the future,first,the ecological footprint model with improved vegetation net primary productivity was applied to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the basin from 2015 to 2020.Second,the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the region in 2030 were predicted by the PLUS model with accuracy verification under three scenarios,including trend continuation,economic development,and ecological protection.The results show that:the overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity per unit area in the region from 2015 to 2030 did not change greatly,but the internal spatial differentiation was clear,and the overall ecological carrying capacity per unit area was high in the southeast and northwest regions,while it was low in the northeast and southwest regions.From 2015 to 2020,the total regional ecological carrying capacity increased from 1.0780×10^(6)to 1.0796×10^(6)bhm^(2),showing an upward trend.From 2020 to 2030,the total regional ecological carrying capacity was predicted to be 1.0783×10^(6)bhm^(2)under the trend continuation scenario,while it was predicted to be 1.0782×10^(6)bhm^(2)under the scenarios of economic development,showing a decreasing trend.This was mainly because of the transfer of pasture to arable land and the transfer of forest to construction area.The total ecological carrying capacity was predicted to increase under the scenario of ecological protection.This is mainly because of the transfer of arable land to forest and pasture.The total ecological carrying capacity of each land use type decreased in the order of:pasture,arable land,forest,construction area,and water area.The total ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was predicted to increase under the ecologica

关 键 词：生态承载力 生态足迹模型 PLUS模型 时空格局 多情景预测 滹沱河流域山区段 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]