耕地“非粮化”影响因素空间效应研究——以珠三角为例  

Spatial effect of influential factors of non-grain cultivated land:a case study of the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：陈莉珍 刘光盛[1,2,3] 聂嘉琦 肖瑶 杨丽英 王红梅 CHEN Lizhen;LIU Guangsheng;NIE Jiaqi;XIAO Yao;YANG Liying;WANG Hongmei(School of Public Administration,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Land Use and Remediation,Guangzhou 510642,China;Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring in South China Tropical and Subtropical Tropics,Ministry of Natural Resources,Guangzhou 510700,China;Guangdong Land Survey and Planning Institute,Guangzhou 510075,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学公共管理学院,广州510642 [2]广东省土地利用与整治重点实验室,广州510642 [3]自然资源部华南热带亚热带自然资源监测重点实验室,广州510700 [4]广东省土地调查规划院,广州510075

出　　处：《农业资源与环境学报》2024年第3期530-538,共9页Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(18YJCZH096)。

摘　　要：为科学管控耕地非粮化,本研究以珠三角县级行政区为研究单元,在揭示耕地非粮化空间分异特征基础上,采用空间杜宾模型和地理加权回归模型探究耕地非粮化及其空间效应。结果表明:珠三角2019年各县平均非粮化率为47.8%,高于全国平均水平。从非粮化率来看,耕地非粮化集聚于珠三角周边县域及部分中部县域,以低-低和高-高集聚为主;从非粮化面积来看,耕地非粮化集聚于研究区东北部,以高-高集聚为主。珠三角非粮化存在空间依赖性。从直接效应看,第一产业GDP占比、到市中心的距离与非粮化呈负相关,劳均耕地面积、有效耕地灌溉面积与非粮化呈正相关;从溢出效应看,人均GDP与非粮化呈正相关。第一产业GDP占比和有效耕地灌溉面积对非粮化的影响均呈现中部高、周边低的空间异质性特征。研究表明,经济发展水平较高区域更易产生“非粮化”,非粮化治理应当因地制宜、分级整治,坚决落实“非粮化”管理政策,提高种粮收益和粮食综合生产力,促进粮农降本增效。In this study,to clarify the current situation of non-grain conversion of cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta and curb the tendency of this conversion,a county-level administrative region was used as the research unit.The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-grain conversion in the Pearl River Delta were determined,and the spatial Durbin model and geographically weighted regression mode were used to explore the spatial effects of the influencing factors of non-grain conversion of cultivated land.The average non-grain rate of counties in the Pearl River Delta in 2019 was 47.8%,which was higher than the national average.From the perspective of ratio,the non-grain cultivated land is concentrated in counties around the Pearl River Delta and some central counties,mainly with low-low and high-high agglomeration.From the perspective of absolute area,non-grain cultivated land is concentrated in the northeast of the study area,mainly high-high agglomeration.Spatial dependence of non-grain was evident in the Pearl River Delta.From the perspective of direct effect,the proportion of gross domestic product(GDP)in the primary industry and the distance to the city center are negatively correlated with non-grain,while the area of cultivated land per labor and the area of effective cultivated land irrigation are positively correlated.From the perspective of spillover effect,per capita GDP is positively correlated with non-grain.Spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the proportion of GDP in the primary industry and the irrigated area of effective cultivated land on non-grain transformation was evident(high in the middle and low on the periphery).The results show that regions with higher levels of economic development are more likely to produce non-grain.Non-grain governance should be adapted to local conditions and hierarchical remediation to improve grain yield and comprehensive grain productivity and promote cost reduction and increase grain and farming efficiency.

关 键 词：非粮化 驱动机制 空间效应 空间杜宾模型 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]